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US monthly GDP rose by an annual rate of 1.9% in October from the previous month, to 18,788 billion dollars US monthly GDP rose by an annual rate of 1.9% in October from the previous month, to 18,788 billion dollars           
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U.S. Monthly GDP and Recessions
October Monthly GDP rose 1.9 percent
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 12, 2020… U.S. flash estimate of monthly real gross domestic product "rose by an annual rate of 1.9% in October, from the previous month, to $18,788 billion," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, U.S. Monthly GDP Digest. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+26.1%) in the three months to October 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, e-forecasting.com’s predictive intelligence model visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 18.2% in October, down from 27.6% in September, and substantially below to 100% catastrophe peak in June…", Simos added. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring preliminary estimate of October 2020 data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, November 19, 2020.
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Monthly GDP data revisions solidify U.S. growth
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product visualizes that monthly˗GDP™ rose by an annual rate of 5.0% in September, from the previous month, to $18,738 billion. The final estimate is based on more complete source of monthly data than were available for the preliminary estimate, and end-of-month update of BEA's quarterly GDP, third quarter of 2020, used to benchmark monthly˗GDP™. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+33.1%) in the three months to September 2020, which is the third quarter’s advanced estimate of GDP. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the national accounts predictive intelligence model, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 27.6% in September, down from 89.7% in August…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, of the GDP Digest. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash estimate of October 2020 monthly GDP, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, November 6, 2020.
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Upward revision in monthly GDP confirms correction from technical dip
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 19 2020… the preliminary estimate of real gross domestic product visualizes today that monthly˗GDP™ rose by an annual rate of 3.6% in September from the previous month to $18,447 billion, an $18 billion upward revision from the flash estimate released on October 8, 2020. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+26.0%) in the three months to September 2020, which by definition is an estimate of third quarter’s growth in U.S. GDP. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 62.3% in September, down from 89.7% in August, a 26 percent points fall in a month, confirming the end of the technical four-month dip in economic activity …", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring Final vintage of September 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Wednesday, November 4, 2020.
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September rise in monthly GDP concludes quarter-three growth to 25.5%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 8, 2020… the flash monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, visualizes a rise in September to $18.4 trillion, which shows $1.2 trillion more GDP than May’s reading of $17 trillion, posted at the bottom of the corona virus crisis. Based on the world’s earliest estimate of U.S. monthly-GDP, “…September’s flash monthly GDP reading concludes the earliest quarterly GDP-mark, which envisions an extraordinary growth rate of 25.5 percent in the third quarter of 2020” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made today in the October 2020 flash issue of U.S. Monthly GDP Digest ™. The latest monthly digest also visualizes a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 64.2 percent in September, down from 89.7% in August. This busines-cycle analytic has been in a downward trend since it hit 100 percent last June. Monthly GDP at today's prices, or nominal GDP, which officially is defined as the market value of United States' output of goods and services expressed in current market prices, posted a reading of $21.2 trillion in September, which is nearly the same figure as nominal GDP ($21.5 trillion) posted in the first quarter of 2020, a ‘peak’ performance at that time before the corona virus hit adversely the economy. “The dynamic American economy has nearly closed in a few months the income gap generated by the health-related restrictions…” Simos added. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring Preliminary vintage of September 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Monday, October 19, 2020.
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August 2020 America monthly GDP rises 10.4%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 21, 2020… today’s preliminary (second) monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, visualizes $51 billion more GDP in August, formed on refreshed, complete and revised source data, than were available for the flash August estimate released earlier this month. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+10.5%) in the three months to August 2020, and hence based on two-month factual data envisions an about 10% growth-path in the third quarter, which is a “natural” growth slowdown as the economy converges to pre-crisis potential growth rates. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a derived upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 89.7% in August, down from 99.9% in July…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final vintage of August 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, October 2, 2020.
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August 2020 America's monthly GDP rises 10.2%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 10, 2020… the flash monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, visualizes a rise in August to $18,181 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+9.5%) in the three months to August 2020. It was the first positive reading on economic growth after five consecutive postings of negative growth rates, ranging from (-5.0%) to (-33.5%), the result of a $2.5 trillion fall in real GDP. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the monthly predictive intelligence national accounting system, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 91.9% in August, down from five consecutive readings of recession risk at 100% …", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest, and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring preliminary vintage of August 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, September 17, 2020.
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August economic leading analytic brings best news in years
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 1, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 3.0 percent in August, following an increase of 2.7 percent in July. All seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. economywide leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, modeled in a business-cycle system creates monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 15 percent in August..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™. “It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline in probability for an upcoming recession since last April’s mark when this analytic posted a reading of 100%. Crossing downwards the 50% line for the second time in a row, the August reading confirms the economy’s return back to its growth path towards potential GDP…,” Simos added.
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July Monthly GDP Surges 29.2%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 21, 2020… second estimate of monthly GDP surged at an annual rate of 29.2% in July, 2.6 percentage points higher than the flash estimate reported ten days ago reflecting more complete and revised source monthly data. July’s monthly GDP reading is the second highest annual growth rate on record since 1959, when e-forecasting.com’s database for U.S. monthly˗GDP™ starts. Monthly GDP at today's prices, which is officially called the market value of United States' output of goods and services expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates in current dollars, posted a reading above $20 trillion in July, after sinking to $19 trillion figures in the previous three months. At $20.2 trillion in July, which is the middle point of 2020, U.S. current dollar GDP is just $1.2 trillion below its annual 2019 value. “Given the significant contribution of productivity to economic growth and the expected employment gains from ending “stay-at-home” restrictions, it may not be surprising to see 2020 GDP to hit a higher mark than in 2019,” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the U.S Monthly GDP Digest™ and professor at the University of New Hampshire. This month's updates of U.S. monthly˗GDP™ reflect BEA's Annual Update of national accounts (NIPAs), back to 2015 for real GDP, and back to 1999 for income and saving. The history revisions and the updates for the second quarter of 2020 have been incorporated in the estimates of e˗forecasting.com U.S. monthly˗GDP™ for total consistency of the two frequencies.
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July monthly GDP jumps 26.6% following gains of 28.9% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 10, 2020… the flash monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, jumped at an annual rate of 26.6% in July to $17,718 billion of chained 2012 dollars, following great gains at a rate of 28.9% in June. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-17.5%) in the three months to July 2020, a solid improvement from a (-32.9%) fall in monthly GDP in the second quarter, three months to June. The latest evidence from monthly˗GDP™ reveal that…"US economic growth in the third quarter of 2020 is expected to be above the potential growth-path of the business cycle," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the U.S Monthly GDP Digest™ and professor at the University of New Hampshire. This month's updates of U.S. monthly˗GDP™ reflect BEA's Annual Update of national accounts (NIPAs), back to 2015 for real GDP, and back to 1999 for income and saving. The history revisions and the updates for the second quarter of 2020 have been incorporated in e˗forecasting.com U.S. monthly˗GDP™ for total consistency of the two frequencies.
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June monthly GDP rose by 15.5% to $17,131 billion
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 20, 2020… the preliminary monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, rose in June to $17,131 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Following four major consecutive falloffs, U.S. monthly GDP substantially increased by an annual rate of 15.5% in June, signaling that the economy hit bottom last May. Upcoming revisions and updates would confirm whether June’s jump in monthly GDP was a sign of a turning point or a downswing outlier in the United States business cycle. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in June, the same as in in May…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final monthly estimate of June 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, August 7, 2020.
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May monthly GDP falls for a fourth month in a row (final vintage)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in May to $16,769 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-34.8%) in the three months to May 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in May, the same as in in April…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash estimate of June 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, July 9, 2020.
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April 2020 final estimate confirms biggest monthly fall since 1959 in monthly-GDP™ history
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in April to $17,438 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-20.8%) in the three months to April 2020. It is the biggest decline in real monthly GDP, since the concept was introduced about two decades ago, with history data starting in January 1959. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in April, up from 99.6% in March…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash vintage of May 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Monday, June 8, 2020.
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April preliminary monthly estimate of U.S. monthly-GDP™ visualizes a deep contraction
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 22, 2020… the preliminary monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in April to $17,461 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-20.6%) in the three months to April 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in April, up from 99.6% in March…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final vintage of April 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), on Wednesday, June 3, 2020.
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March final monthly estimate of monthly-GDP™ visualizes contraction for the United States
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 8, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a substantial fall in March to $18,679 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-4.8%) in the three months to March 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 99.6% in March, up from 74.4% in February…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash vintage of April 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), on Thursday, May 14, 2020.
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March flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes 2020 first quarter growth at 0.9%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 14, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, fell in March to $19,230 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+0.9%) in the three months to March 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 27% in March, up from 14.9% in February…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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January 2020 final U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth at 2.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, March 6, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in January to $19,299 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.3%) in the three months to January 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.2% in January, up from 6.7% in December…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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January 2020 flash U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth at 2.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 7, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in January to $19,299 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.3%) in the three months to January 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.2% in January, up from 6.7% in December…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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December's final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP on a growth path of (+2.1%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 7, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in December to $19,244 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.1%) in the three months to December 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 9.1% in December, up from 7.6% in November…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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December flash vintage of U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth of 1.3% for the fourth quarter of 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 14, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in December to $19,199 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.3%) in the three months to December 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 14.1% in December, up from 11.8% in November…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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November's final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP on a growth path of (+1.5%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 4, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in November to $19,176 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.5%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 12.5% in November, up from 9.5% in October…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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November preliminary vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 16.7%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 31, 2019… e-forecasting.com's preliminary vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in November to $19,146 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.1%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 16.7% in November, up from 12.1% displayed in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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November flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 22.6%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 9, 2019… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, fell in November to $19,112 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+0.7%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 22.6% in November, up from 14.6% displayed in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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October flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 13.4%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 7, 2019… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in October to $19,133 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP ™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.4%) in the three months to October 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 13.4% in October, up from 9.7% displayed in the September issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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August Flash U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 11.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 14, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in August by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.6% to $19,084 billion. August's flash monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.8%) in the three months to August 2019 from the previous period - three months to May 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.3% in August, up from 8.7% displayed in the July issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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July final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 3, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in July by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.1% to $19,052 billion. July's final monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.8%) in the three months to July 2019 from the previous period - three months to April 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.5% in July, up from 7.9% displayed in the June issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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July flash estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in July by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.3% to $19,059 billion.
July's flash monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.9%) in the three months to July 2019 from the previous period - three months to April 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, predictive intelligence modeling visualized in today's published U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 10.7% in July, up from 7.6% displayed in the June issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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July monthly GDP on (+3.6%) path for this quarter
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 17, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in July to $18,581 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in US Monthly GDP Digest, the volume measure of the "King of statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 1.5% in July, following an increase of 3.2% in June.
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June preliminary estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 29, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in June by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.8% to $19,057 billion. June's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP visualizes the rolling three-month growth rate, a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, at (+2.1%), in the three months to June 2019 from the previous period, three months to March 2019. The latest reading of monthly GDP puts forward a recession warning analytic, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, which displays "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.3% in June, up from 6.6% reported in the May issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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June flash estimate of U.S. monthly GDP hints at 0.8% growth in Q2
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in June by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.1% to $18,965 billion.
June's flash vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+0.8%) in the three months to June 2019 from the previous period, three months to March 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 12.6% in June, up from 10.1% reported in the May issue of the Digest…" , said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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U.S. Monthly GDP on a growth path of (+1.1%) in May
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 17, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, declined in May by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.7% to $18,936 billion.
May's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.1%) in the three months to May 2019 from the previous period, three months to February 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.5% in May, up from 3.0% reported in the April issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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U.S. Monthly GDP on a growth path of (+2.0%) in April
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 17, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, declined in April by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.2% to $18,920 billion.
April's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+2.0%) in the three months to April 2019 from the previous period, three months to January 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 8.9% in April, up from 4.8% reported in the March issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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US Monthly GDP increased 1.2% in March 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in March by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.2% to $18,921 billion.
March's flash vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+2.8%) in the three months to March 2019 from the previous period, three months to December 2018.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 4.7% in March, up from 3.0% reported in the February issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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US Monthly GDP edged down 0.3% in February 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, March 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, edged down in February by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.3% to $18,846 billion.
February's flash vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+2.2%) in the three months to February 2019 from the previous period, three months to November 2018.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 6.9% in February, up from 3.3% reported in the January issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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US Monthly GDP rose 0.9% in December 2018
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 17, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in December by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 3.0% to $18,839 billion.
December's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+2.7%) in the three months to December 2018 from the previous period, three months to September 2018.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 1.8% in December, up from 1.9% reported in the November issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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US Monthly GDP rose 0.7% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 20, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in June to $17,431 billion of chained 2009 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. According to the highlights published today in the US Monthly GDP Digest, the "King of Statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 0.7% in June. Figures for June are preliminary and figures for May are revisions from preliminary data published last month.

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US Monthly GDP rose 2.0% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 3, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in June to $18,545 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in the US Monthly GDP Digest, the "King of Statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 2.0% in June, following an increase of 3.5% in May.

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July monthly GDP on (+3.6%) path for this quarter
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 17, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in July to $18,581 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. According to the highlights published today in US Monthly GDP Digest, the volume measure of the "King of statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 1.5% in July, following an increase of 3.2% in June

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US Monthly GDP rose 0.9% in November 2018
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 14, 2018… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in November by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.9% to $18,755 billion.
November's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+2.4%) in the three months to November 2018 from the previous period, three months to August 2018.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 3.4% in November, up from 2.1% reported in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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US Monthly GDP rose 1.1% in October 2018
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 29, 2018… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in October by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.1% to $18,732 billion.
October's flash vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+3.1%) in the three months to October 2018 from the previous period, three months to July 2018.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 2.4% in October, up from 1.5% reported in the September issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Monthly GDP rose 1.3% in September
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 19, 2018… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in September by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.3% to $18,687 billion. September's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+3.2%) in the three months to September 2018 from the previous period, three months to June 2018. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 2.3% in September, up from 1.5% reported in the August issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 

US monthly GDP rose by an annual rate of 1.9% in October from the previous month, to 18,788 billion dollars

























































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