e-forecasting.com
understands the needs of businesses and organizations to have a
real-time understanding of what is going on in the economy. It
is with this imperative in mind that we developed our US monthly
GDP series – the only measure of the nation’s output of goods
and services used easily in a monthly forecasting model and
helps generate forecasts of economic and business indicators.
Your business forecasting models no longer have to rely on
quarterly figures, which suffer from a data availability delay
of one to two quarters and hence generate large forecast errors.
Our monthly GDP brings models to speed, keeping them current
with the pulse of the US economy. You do not want to have to
wait three or more months to determine the effects of an oil
shock or natural disaster. Each month, we provide a flash
(first) estimate of our GDP, which is followed by a second
estimate mid-way through the month.
To develop this unique series, we follow a systematic diffusion
technology that relates monthly information of many indicators
to quarterly GDP. We allocate (frequency-augment) quarterly GDP
data to monthly data according to the behavior of the monthly
metrics. Then, using real-time monthly diffusion metrics, we
estimate real-time monthly GDP consistent with the quarterly
totals. Our real-time monthly estimates make GDP available 3-4
months ahead of the official figures.
Our monthly US Real GDP is statistically standardized to the
quarterly GDP compiled by the Department of Commerce and it is
subject to official revisions of the quarterly figures. It is
expressed at seasonally adjusted, chained 2002 dollars, on an
annual basis. Consequently, our monthly GDP data should be
averaged to get the quarterly data.
