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Economic Indicators

US Monthly GDP

e-forecasting.com understands the needs of businesses and organizations to have a real-time understanding of what is going on in the economy. It is with this imperative in mind that we developed our US monthly GDP series – the only measure of the nation’s output of goods and services used easily in a monthly forecasting model and helps generate forecasts of economic and business indicators.

Your business forecasting models no longer have to rely on quarterly figures, which suffer from a data availability delay of one to two quarters and hence generate large forecast errors. Our monthly GDP brings models to speed, keeping them current with the pulse of the US economy. You do not want to have to wait three or more months to determine the effects of an oil shock or natural disaster. Each month, we provide a flash (first) estimate of our GDP, which is followed by a second estimate mid-way through the month.

To develop this unique series, we follow a systematic diffusion technology that relates monthly information of many indicators to quarterly GDP. We allocate (frequency-augment) quarterly GDP data to monthly data according to the behavior of the monthly metrics. Then, using real-time monthly diffusion metrics, we estimate real-time monthly GDP consistent with the quarterly totals. Our real-time monthly estimates make GDP available 3-4 months ahead of the official figures.

Our monthly US Real GDP is statistically standardized to the quarterly GDP compiled by the Department of Commerce and it is subject to official revisions of the quarterly figures. It is expressed at seasonally adjusted, chained 2002 dollars, on an annual basis. Consequently, our monthly GDP data should be averaged to get the quarterly data.

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