America's Economic Leading Analytic on a free fall |
June, 2022… America's economic Leading Analytic on a free fall in May, and on a five-month declining trend, confirms America's 2022 recession. There is “no policy to reverse the historic catastrophe in a few months…’’said UNH Professor Evangelos Otto Simos (in exile), editor-in-chief, at the public release of the latest
Leading Analytics Warp Digest.
In line with our monthly GDP, published in high frequency, weekly, at least a month ahead of official macro numbers, and similar news from other private consulting companies, have deepen panic in financial markets, resulting in a free fall of stock indices, lethargy in consumer spending from skyrocketing taxes (inflation), expected lack of electricity for necessities, all leading to call our current experience a period a new epoch of “dark ages.” Important to note that then, people were without “masks“, thus by any measure their living was better than us in today’s America.
“meta (gr.)” is the cool word to justify everything, from milk, education, MBA, and law “ Professor Simos added.” Like Keynes, who said after the great depression, in “the long-run we are all dead,” nowadays, whoever complains just say “meta,” you will be happy. This is our latest - a few months old – neo critical economic policy and theory”.
Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to model the most likely future scenarios and detect the level of risk involved on the timing private businesses’ decisions may be made, "...our analytics on probabilistic thinking visualized, using May data, a probability of 60 percent for the economy to be in contraction- phase of its business cycle in the near future; factually, the same predictive analytic was nil in July and 6 percent in December of 2021. What a difference a few months make.
Note: Our intelligence economic and business barometers are distributed to subscribers without analytical commentary, to a few financial institutions and central banks around the world, 1-2 days before the summary public press release (like the above), and before the distribution of the visualization of the digest. |
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America's Economic Leading Analytic
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America's economic Leading Analytic "…fell in March following an increase of 0.1 percent in February," said UNH Professor Evangelos Otto Simos (in exile), editor-in-chief, at the release of the latest Leading Analytics Warp Digest.
The significant drop in the leading economic barometer "was led by a drop in foreign demand for goods made in America…," Professor Simos added.
Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to model the most likely future scenarios and detect the level of risk involved on the timing private businesses’ decisions are made, "...our analytics on probabilistic thinking visualized, using March data, a probability of 56 percent for the economy to stay in the expansion phase of its business cycle in the near future," Professor Simos put forward.
Two more of our seven “unique” predictive analytics, in addition to foreign demand, have had a strong negative contribution to America's factual predictor in March: Technological Change in Manufacturing; and consumer’s euphoria.
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America's Economic Leading Analytic Rose |
America's economic Leading Analytic " rose in December to the highest reading of ever recorded in 63 years," said UNH Professor Evangelos Otto Simos (in exile), editor-in-chief, at the release of the latest Leading Analytics Warp Digest.
The increase in the leading economic barometer " was led by a jump in consumers’ euphoria about the future…," Professor Simos added.
Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to model the most likely future scenarios and detect the level of risk involved on the timing business decisions are made, "...probabilistic thinking visualized in December 2021 a probability of 93.5 percent for the economy to be positioned in the expansion phase of its business cycle in the near future," Professor Simos put forward.
Three of the seven predictive analytics - which make up e‒forecasting.com's leading economic barometer, eLA™ - have had a negative or zero contribution to our America's factual predictor in December: Interest Rate Spread; Technological Change in Manufacturing; and Foreign Demand for made-in-America goods."
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America's Economic Leading Analytic Rose |
America's economic Leading Analytic "rose in November to the highest reading in its history," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, at the release of the latest Leading Analytics Warp Digest.
The increase in the earliest leading economic barometer "…was led by a surge in housing activity. Three more of the seven predictive analytics that make up e‒forecasting.com's leading economic barometer, eLA™, improved in November…" Simos added.
Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to model the most likely future scenarios and detect the level of risk involved on the timing business decisions are made, "...probabilistic thinking visualizes in November 2021 a probability of 95 percent for the economy to be positioned in the expansion phase of its business cycle in the near future…," Professor Simos put forward.
Calendar Note: The end of year December issue of America’s Leading Analytics Warp Digest, visualizing December data, will be available to the clients on December 28, with highlights to the public in our press release on December 29, 2021.
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America's Economic Leading Analytic Rose |
America's economic Leading Analytic "rose in October to the highest reading of ever recorded in 63 years," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, at the release of the latest
Leading Analytics Warp Digest.
“A surge in housing activity led the October increase in the US leading economic barometer," Professor Simos, highlighted. Six of the seven predictive analytics that make up e‒forecasting.com's leading economic barometer improved in October. The only component that had a negative or zero contribution to America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, was consumer confidence.
Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to expand, at a risk, the leading time of eLA to improve executive-driven profitability, probabilistic thinking analytic visualizes this month a high probability for the US economy to be positioned in the near future in the expansion phase of its business cycle.
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America's Economic Leading Analytic Bounces Back |
DURHAM, October 1, 2021, America's economic Leading Analytic "rebounded in September, following a decrease of 0.4 percent in August," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, at the release of the latest Leading Analytics Warp Digest. The bouncing back in the leading economic barometer "was led by a surge in manufacturers' orders."
Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence, "...probabilistic thinking visualizes in September 2021 a probability of 96.6 percent for the economy to be positioned in the expansion phase of its business cycle in the near future," Professor Simos put forward. |
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August 2021 Economic Leading Analytic Fell After Fifteen Advances |
DURHAM, New Hampshire, September 1, 2021, … America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, "fell 0.4 percent in August, after fifteen monthly advances in a row," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made in the latest issue of the United States Leading Indicators Digest™.
Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to model the most likely future
scenario and detect the level of risk involved on the timing business decisions are made, "...probabilistic thinking visualizes in August 2021 an estimate of 2% probability for an economic downturn in the near future," Simos added.
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2021 America’s Economic Leading Analytic Rose |
DURHAM, New Hampshire, August 1, 2021, …America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, "rose 0.4 percent in July, a fifteenth monthly increase in a row, clearly visualizing what's next in the economy," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made in the latest issue of the United States Leading Indicators Digest™.
Three of the seven time-series predictive analytics that make up e‒forecasting.com's leading economic barometer, eLA™, improved in July: Manufacturers' New Orders; Stock Prices; and Technological Change in Manufacturing.
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Economic Leading Analytic lifted up in June |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 5, 2021… America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, “…lifted up again in June, for a fourteenth month in a row," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made in the latest issue of the United States Leading Indicators Digest™.
Five of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. June’s increase in economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, “… was led by a jump in new orders, solid gains in consumers’ expectations, and substantial advances in technology, commonly called labor productivity.”
Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to the leading analytic, e-forecasting.com models the most likely future economic scenaria, and detects for each scenario the level of risk involved at the timing a potential business decision is made, in searching for opportunities, commonly called ‘risk-loving’. In June, ‘probabilistic thinking’ visualized an estimate of 0.1% (nil) probability for an economic downturn in the near future, for the eighth consecutive month," Simos added.
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Economic Leading Analytic Rose in May |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 4, 2021… America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, "rose 0.8 percent in May, a thirteen-monthly increase in a row for what's next in the economy," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made in the latest issue of the
United States Leading Indicators Digest™.
Four of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer; May’s increase in economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, was led by a jump in technological change, commonly called productivity.
Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to model the most likely future scenaria and detect the level of risk involved on the timing business decisions are made, "...probabilistic thinking visualizes in May 2021 an estimate of 0% (nil) probability for an economic downturn in the near future," Simos added.
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Economic Leading Analytic Rose Again in March |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 2, 2021 … America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, "rose 1.3 percent in March, an eleventh monthly increase in a row for what's next in the economy," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made in the latest issue of
the United States Leading Indicators Digest™.
Five of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer, led by solid gains in consumer confidence and a jump in orders for manufactured goods.
Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. Visualization of this month's findings from the econometric model display “the probability for an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months to stand at zero percent in March...", Simos added.
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Economic Leading Analytic Rose in February (For Release 4:30 PM, Eastern Time (USA & Canada) March 4, 2021) |
DURHAM, New Hampshire, "…America’s economic Leading Analytic™ rose in February for a tenth month in a row," said professor Evangelos Otto Simos in comments made today in the latest issue of Unites States Leading Analytics Digest™.
“Led by incoming orders and technological progress, America’s what’s next barometer of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 1.2 percent in February, following an increase of 0.5 percent in December…” added Simos, editor-in-chief, when speaking on the business news presented in the Digest. On a year-over-year basis, the latest reading for economic leading Analytic (eLA)
in February 2021, was 7.4 percent higher than a year ago,
February 2020
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Zero probability of future U.S. recession |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 7, 2021…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite economic barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and system-modeled predictive analytics, rose 1.2 percent in December, following an increase of 1.3 percent in November.
Five of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading economic barometer, led by manufacturers’ orders and technological progress, commonly called labor productivity.
Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for a future, i.e. upcoming, recession. Visualization of this month's findings show "...a zero probability of a forthcoming recession in the next six to nine months, compared with a reading of 99.7 percent seven months ago, May 2020," said professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
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November Economic Leading Analytic Up for a Seventh Month in a Row |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 2, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic leading analytic rose 1.3 percent in November, following an increase of 1.7 percent in October. Six of the seven forward-looking predictive analytics, which make up the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, had a positive contribution to the overall predictive intelligence business tool.
Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, eLA™ provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing eLA’s findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 1 percent in November...," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™. And “…seven months ago, the risk of a U.S. recession posted a reading of 100 percent,” Simos added.
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October leading analytic hits an all-time high |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 2, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, rose 1.7 percent in October "for a sixth month in a row, hitting an all-time high…,” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Analytics Digest™.
All seven components of forward-looking analytics had a positive contribution to the increase in the aggregate leading barometer, “led by technological advancements and manufacturers’ incoming orders.”
Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, e-forecasting.com’ economic Leading Analytic, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. The modeled derived analytics visualize "...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months to be just 2 percent in October..." Simos added.
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September leading analytic displays recession probability on a free fall at 5% |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 1, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic edged up 1.8 percent in September, after rising 3.0 percent in August. It was the fifth consecutive increase in the earliest available U.S. leading barometer, following a 6.7 percent drop at the peak of the virus crisis last April.
Six of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. economywide leading analytic, led by solid gains in technological change, and foreign demand for USA-made manufactured goods.
Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, visualizes monthly predictions of the risk for an upcoming recession. The latest findings display"...the probability for a forthcoming downswing to be on a free fall, posting a reading of 5 percent in September,...an incredible outlook in comparison to 100 percent recession risk recorded in April and June." said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
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July U.S. Economywide Leading Analytic Up for a Third Month in a Row |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 4, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 2.8 percent in July, following an increase of 5.1 percent in June.
Five of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions.
By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 49.7 percent in July..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
“It was the third consecutive monthly decline in probability for an upcoming recession since last April’s mark when this analytic posted a reading of 100%. Crossing downwards slightly the 50% line, the July reading seems to signal the economy’s return back to its growth path towards potential GDP…,” Simos added.
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June monthly GDP rose by 15.5% to $17,131 billion |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 20, 2020… the preliminary monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, rose in June to $17,131 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Following four major consecutive falloffs, U.S. monthly GDP substantially increased by an annual rate of 15.5% in June, signaling that the economy hit bottom last May. Upcoming revisions and updates would confirm whether June’s jump in monthly GDP was a sign of a turning point or a downswing outlier in the United States business cycle.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in June, the same as in in May…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final monthly estimate of June 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, August 7, 2020.
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May monthly GDP falls for a fourth month in a row (final vintage) |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in May to $16,769 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-34.8%) in the three months to May 2020.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in May, the same as in in April…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash estimate of June 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, July 9, 2020.
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June Leading Barometer Straight Up, All Components Rose! |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 3, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 5.2 percent in June, following an increase of 0.3 percent in May.
Wow! All of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions.
By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 85 percent in June, following 100% recession-probabilities in in the two previous months ...", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
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May Leading Barometer Signals Turning Point to Recovery |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 8, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 0.3 percent in May, following a decrease of 7.2 percent in April.
Four of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer.
Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 100 percent in May..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
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April 2020 final estimate confirms biggest monthly fall since 1959 in monthly-GDP™ history |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in April to $17,438 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-20.8%) in the three months to April 2020. It is the biggest decline in real monthly GDP, since the concept was introduced about two decades ago, with history data starting in January 1959.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in April, up from 99.6% in March…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash vintage of May 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Monday, June 8, 2020.
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April preliminary monthly estimate of U.S. monthly-GDP™ visualizes a deep contraction |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 22, 2020… the preliminary monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in April to $17,461 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-20.6%) in the three months to April 2020.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in April, up from 99.6% in March…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final vintage of April 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), on Wednesday, June 3, 2020.
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May Consumer Optimism Soars Signaling an Upcoming Big Boom |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 18, 2020… U.S. consumer confidence™ falls in May for a third month in a row. e-forecasting.com's conventional, "statistically low order" barometer, reflects the change in mood of Americans over the next six months for the world's largest market consisting of $15 trillion consumer spending per year.
Derived from deep diving into higher order analytics, advanced thinking processes driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and ever-changing (dynamic) optimization, the monthly innovative “consumer optimism” barometer, which in May crosses the inevitable chasm between what’s next and what’s now,"...visualizes to thought leaders a rising optimism about the economy over the next six months," said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor at the University of New Hampshire and editor-in-chief of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Digest.
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March final monthly estimate of monthly-GDP™ visualizes contraction for the United States |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 8, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a substantial fall in March to $18,679 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-4.8%) in the three months to March 2020.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 99.6% in March, up from 74.4% in February…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash vintage of April 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), on Thursday, May 14, 2020.
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March flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes 2020 first quarter growth at 0.9% |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 14, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, fell in March to $19,230 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+0.9%) in the three months to March 2020.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 27% in March, up from 14.9% in February…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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January 2020 final U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth at 2.3% |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, March 6, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in January to $19,299 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.3%) in the three months to January 2020.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.2% in January, up from 6.7% in December…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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January 2020 flash U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth at 2.3% |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 7, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in January to $19,299 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.3%) in the three months to January 2020.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.2% in January, up from 6.7% in December…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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December's final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP on a growth path of (+2.1%) |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 7, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in December to $19,244 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.1%) in the three months to December 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 9.1% in December, up from 7.6% in November…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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Led by Export Demand, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in January 2020 |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 4, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 1.2 percent in January, following an increase of 0.1 percent in December.
Four of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed synergically to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle.
Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 3 percent in January..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
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December flash vintage of U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth of 1.3% for the fourth quarter of 2019 |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 14, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in December to $19,199 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.3%) in the three months to December 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 14.1% in December, up from 11.8% in November…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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Led by Housing Demand, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in December |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 4, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 0.2 percent in December, following a decrease of 0.3 percent in November.
Four of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed synergically to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle.
Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 12 percent in December..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
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November's final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP on a growth path of (+1.5%) |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 4, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in November to $19,176 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.5%) in the three months to November 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 12.5% in November, up from 9.5% in October…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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November preliminary vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 16.7% |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 31, 2019… e-forecasting.com's preliminary vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in November to $19,146 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.1%) in the three months to November 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 16.7% in November, up from 12.1% displayed in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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November flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 22.6% |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 9, 2019… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, fell in November to $19,112 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+0.7%) in the three months to November 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 22.6% in November, up from 14.6% displayed in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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October flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 13.4% |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 7, 2019… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in October to $19,133 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP ™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.4%) in the three months to October 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 13.4% in October, up from 9.7% displayed in the September issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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Led by Solid Gains in Exports, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in October |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 0.9 percent in October, following a zero-growth reading in September.
Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 12 percent in October..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.
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U.S. Leading Barometer Stalled in September |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, stayed constant in September, following a decrease of 2.1 percent in August.
Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 38 percent in September..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.
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U.S. Leading Barometer Fell in August |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 3, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, fell 2.1 percent in August, following a decrease of 0.5 percent in July.
By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 70 percent in August..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.
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U.S. Consumer Confidence falls in September |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com™ earliest, final and never revised reading of U.S. consumer confidence, for the world's largest consumer market of $15 trillion purchases per year, falls in September, for a second month in a row.
Using predictive intelligence on business-cycle analytics like monthly-gdp™, contraction chronology and consumers' expectations, the model displays that "… the probability for an upcoming recession rose to 49.7% in September from 22.5% in August. As a result, the probability for a future expansion posted a reading of 50.3%...", said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor at the University of New Hampshire and editor-in-chief of the Digest.
In the published today September issue of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Digest, the barometer of consumers' outlook, which visualizes Americans' optimism (pessimism) from analytics on what's next vs. what's now, "...predicts slowing optimism for business activity over the next six months," said Suwen Duan, VP for Artificial Intelligence (AI) at e-forecasting.com, scientist at MIT, and editor of the Digest.
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August Flash U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 11.3% |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 14, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in August by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.6% to $19,084 billion. August's flash monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.8%) in the three months to August 2019 from the previous period - three months to May 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.3% in August, up from 8.7% displayed in the July issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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July final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 3, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in July by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.1% to $19,052 billion. July's final monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.8%) in the three months to July 2019 from the previous period - three months to April 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.5% in July, up from 7.9% displayed in the June issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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U.S. Consumer Confidence fell in August |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com™ earliest and
always final reading of U.S. consumer confidence, for the world's largest
consumer market of $15 trillion, fell in August, after five consecutive monthly
increases since last March. In the published today August issue of the U.S.
Consumer Confidence Digest, the barometer of consumers' outlook, which
visualizes Americans' optimism (pessimism) from analytics on what's next vs.
what's now, "...predicts rising optimism for business activity over the next six
months," said Suwen Duan, VP for AI Research at e-forecasting.com, data
scientist at MIT, and editor of the Digest.
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July flash estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth
below potential trend |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com's
U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in July by an annualized
month-to-month growth rate of 0.3% to $19,059 billion.
July's flash monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed
the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high
frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized
quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.9%) in the three
months to July 2019 from the previous period - three months
to April 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly
GDP, predictive intelligence modeling visualized in today's
published U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, "...a probability for the
national economy to be in recession at 10.7% in July, up
from 7.6% displayed in the June issue of the Digest…", said
Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and
professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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inquiries email:
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June preliminary estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 29, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in June by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.8% to $19,057 billion. June's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP visualizes the rolling three-month growth rate, a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, at (+2.1%), in the three months to June 2019 from the previous period, three months to March 2019.
The latest reading of monthly GDP puts forward a recession warning analytic, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, which displays "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.3% in June, up from 6.6% reported in the May issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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July monthly GDP on (+3.6%) path for this quarter |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 17, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in July to $18,581 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in US Monthly GDP Digest, the volume measure of the "King of statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 1.5% in July, following an increase of 3.2% in June.
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US Consumer Confidence Hits an All-Time High in August |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 16, 2018… e-forecasting.com's earliest and final-version of its US consumer confidence rose in August, following today's update of the largest in scope and size consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics™.
According to the highlights published today in the August issue of the US Consumer Confidence Digest, the popular consumer confidence measure, which is indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, increased 0.2 percent points in August to a reading of 111.7, after rising (+0.3 percent points) in July.
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US Monthly GDP rose 2.0% in June |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 3, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in June to $18,545 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in the US Monthly GDP Digest, the "King of Statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 2.0% in June, following an increase of 3.5% in May.
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US Economy-Wide Leading Analytic Stalled in July |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 1, 2018…e-forecasting.com's economy-wide Leading Analytic (eLA)™, a composite indicator of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, held steady in July to a reading of 120.0. Set to equal 100 in 2005, eLA™ historically foreshadows US economic conditions five to six months ahead of the release of monthly GDP.
e-forecasting.com's early bird - released one to two months ahead of the traditional leading indicators made by the Conference Board and OECD - stayed constant in July, after an increase of 0.4 percent in June.
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US Leading Predictive Analytic Rose in June |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 7, 2018…The
e-forecasting.com Leading Economic Index (eLEI), a composite
indicator of seven time-series forward looking predictive
analytics, increased in June to a reading of 120.0. Set to
equal 100 in 2005, eLEI historically foreshadows US economic
conditions five to six months ahead of the release of
monthly GDP. e-forecasting.com's early bird - released
one to two months ahead of the traditional leading
indicators made by the Conference Board and OECD - rose 0.5
percent in June, after an increase of 0.8 percent in May.
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US Consumer Confidence Hits an All-Time High in July |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 12, 2018… The e-forecasting.com's
earliest and complete monthly US consumer confidence rose in
July, following today's update of the largest in scope and size
consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics™.
According to the highlights published today in the July
issue of the US Consumer Confidence Digest, the popular confidence
measure, which is indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, increased
0.2 percent points in July to a reading of 111.6, after rising
(+0.4 percent points) in June.
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US Monthly GDP rose 0.7% in June |
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 20, 2018… e-forecasting.com's
monthly real GDP rose in June to $17,431 billion of chained
2009 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in the US Monthly
GDP Digest, the "King of Statistics in high frequency" increased
by an annual rate of 0.7% in June. Figures for June are preliminary
and figures for May are revisions from preliminary data published
last month.
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