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U.S. monthly GDP and Recessions July 20, 2020  U.S. monthly GDP and Recessions July 20, 2020     
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U.S. Monthly GDP and Recessions
June monthly GDP rose by 15.5% to $17,131 billion
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 20, 2020… the preliminary monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, rose in June to $17,131 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Following four major consecutive falloffs, U.S. monthly GDP substantially increased by an annual rate of 15.5% in June, signaling that the economy hit bottom last May. Upcoming revisions and updates would confirm whether June’s jump in monthly GDP was a sign of a turning point or a downswing outlier in the United States business cycle. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in June, the same as in in May…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final monthly estimate of June 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, August 7, 2020.
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May monthly GDP falls for a fourth month in a row (final vintage)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in May to $16,769 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-34.8%) in the three months to May 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in May, the same as in in April…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash estimate of June 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, July 9, 2020.
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April 2020 final estimate confirms biggest monthly fall since 1959 in monthly-GDP™ history
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in April to $17,438 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-20.8%) in the three months to April 2020. It is the biggest decline in real monthly GDP, since the concept was introduced about two decades ago, with history data starting in January 1959. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in April, up from 99.6% in March…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash vintage of May 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Monday, June 8, 2020.
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April preliminary monthly estimate of U.S. monthly-GDP™ visualizes a deep contraction
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 22, 2020… the preliminary monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in April to $17,461 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-20.6%) in the three months to April 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in April, up from 99.6% in March…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final vintage of April 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), on Wednesday, June 3, 2020.
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March final monthly estimate of monthly-GDP™ visualizes contraction for the United States
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 8, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a substantial fall in March to $18,679 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-4.8%) in the three months to March 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 99.6% in March, up from 74.4% in February…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash vintage of April 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), on Thursday, May 14, 2020.
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March flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes 2020 first quarter growth at 0.9%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 14, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, fell in March to $19,230 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+0.9%) in the three months to March 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 27% in March, up from 14.9% in February…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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January 2020 final U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth at 2.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, March 6, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in January to $19,299 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.3%) in the three months to January 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.2% in January, up from 6.7% in December…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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January 2020 flash U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth at 2.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 7, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in January to $19,299 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.3%) in the three months to January 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.2% in January, up from 6.7% in December…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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December's final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP on a growth path of (+2.1%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 7, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in December to $19,244 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.1%) in the three months to December 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 9.1% in December, up from 7.6% in November…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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December flash vintage of U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth of 1.3% for the fourth quarter of 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 14, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in December to $19,199 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.3%) in the three months to December 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 14.1% in December, up from 11.8% in November…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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November's final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP on a growth path of (+1.5%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 4, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in November to $19,176 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.5%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 12.5% in November, up from 9.5% in October…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
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November preliminary vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 16.7%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 31, 2019… e-forecasting.com's preliminary vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in November to $19,146 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.1%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 16.7% in November, up from 12.1% displayed in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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November flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 22.6%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 9, 2019… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, fell in November to $19,112 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+0.7%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 22.6% in November, up from 14.6% displayed in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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October flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 13.4%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 7, 2019… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in October to $19,133 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP ™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.4%) in the three months to October 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 13.4% in October, up from 9.7% displayed in the September issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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August Flash U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 11.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 14, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in August by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.6% to $19,084 billion. August's flash monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.8%) in the three months to August 2019 from the previous period - three months to May 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.3% in August, up from 8.7% displayed in the July issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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July final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 3, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in July by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.1% to $19,052 billion. July's final monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.8%) in the three months to July 2019 from the previous period - three months to April 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.5% in July, up from 7.9% displayed in the June issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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July flash estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in July by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.3% to $19,059 billion.
July's flash monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.9%) in the three months to July 2019 from the previous period - three months to April 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, predictive intelligence modeling visualized in today's published U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 10.7% in July, up from 7.6% displayed in the June issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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July monthly GDP on (+3.6%) path for this quarter
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 17, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in July to $18,581 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in US Monthly GDP Digest, the volume measure of the "King of statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 1.5% in July, following an increase of 3.2% in June.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
June preliminary estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 29, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in June by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.8% to $19,057 billion. June's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP visualizes the rolling three-month growth rate, a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, at (+2.1%), in the three months to June 2019 from the previous period, three months to March 2019. The latest reading of monthly GDP puts forward a recession warning analytic, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, which displays "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.3% in June, up from 6.6% reported in the May issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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June flash estimate of U.S. monthly GDP hints at 0.8% growth in Q2
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in June by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.1% to $18,965 billion.
June's flash vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+0.8%) in the three months to June 2019 from the previous period, three months to March 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 12.6% in June, up from 10.1% reported in the May issue of the Digest…" , said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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U.S. Monthly GDP on a growth path of (+1.1%) in May
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 17, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, declined in May by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.7% to $18,936 billion.
May's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.1%) in the three months to May 2019 from the previous period, three months to February 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.5% in May, up from 3.0% reported in the April issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com 
 
U.S. Monthly GDP on a growth path of (+2.0%) in April
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 17, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, declined in April by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.2% to $18,920 billion.
April's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+2.0%) in the three months to April 2019 from the previous period, three months to January 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 8.9% in April, up from 4.8% reported in the March issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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US Monthly GDP increased 1.2% in March 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in March by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.2% to $18,921 billion.
March's flash vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+2.8%) in the three months to March 2019 from the previous period, three months to December 2018.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 4.7% in March, up from 3.0% reported in the February issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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US Monthly GDP edged down 0.3% in February 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, March 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, edged down in February by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.3% to $18,846 billion.
February's flash vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+2.2%) in the three months to February 2019 from the previous period, three months to November 2018.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 6.9% in February, up from 3.3% reported in the January issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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US Monthly GDP rose 0.9% in December 2018
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 17, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in December by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 3.0% to $18,839 billion.
December's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+2.7%) in the three months to December 2018 from the previous period, three months to September 2018.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 1.8% in December, up from 1.9% reported in the November issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

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US Monthly GDP rose 0.7% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 20, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in June to $17,431 billion of chained 2009 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. According to the highlights published today in the US Monthly GDP Digest, the "King of Statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 0.7% in June. Figures for June are preliminary and figures for May are revisions from preliminary data published last month.

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US Monthly GDP rose 2.0% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 3, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in June to $18,545 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in the US Monthly GDP Digest, the "King of Statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 2.0% in June, following an increase of 3.5% in May.

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July monthly GDP on (+3.6%) path for this quarter
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 17, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in July to $18,581 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. According to the highlights published today in US Monthly GDP Digest, the volume measure of the "King of statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 1.5% in July, following an increase of 3.2% in June

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US Monthly GDP rose 0.9% in November 2018
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 14, 2018… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in November by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.9% to $18,755 billion.
November's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+2.4%) in the three months to November 2018 from the previous period, three months to August 2018.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 3.4% in November, up from 2.1% reported in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Monthly GDP rose 1.1% in October 2018
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 29, 2018… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in October by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.1% to $18,732 billion.
October's flash vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+3.1%) in the three months to October 2018 from the previous period, three months to July 2018.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 2.4% in October, up from 1.5% reported in the September issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Monthly GDP rose 1.3% in September
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 19, 2018… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in September by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.3% to $18,687 billion. September's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP showed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+3.2%) in the three months to September 2018 from the previous period, three months to June 2018. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a real-time recession warning barometer, which was a theme visualization in today's published US Monthly GDP Digest, displayed "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 2.3% in September, up from 1.5% reported in the August issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 

U.S. monthly GDP and Recessions July 20, 2020









































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