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U.S. August 5, 2020 graph, economic leading barometer eLA, rose 2.8 percent in July  U.S. August 5, 2020 graph, economic leading barometer eLA, rose 2.8 percent in July       
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July U.S. Economywide Leading Analytic Up for a Third Month in a Row
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 4, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 2.8 percent in July, following an increase of 5.1 percent in June. Five of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 49.7 percent in July..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™. “It was the third consecutive monthly decline in probability for an upcoming recession since last April’s mark when this analytic posted a reading of 100%. Crossing downwards slightly the 50% line, the July reading seems to signal the economy’s return back to its growth path towards potential GDP…,” Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
June monthly GDP rose by 15.5% to $17,131 billion
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 20, 2020… the preliminary monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, rose in June to $17,131 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Following four major consecutive falloffs, U.S. monthly GDP substantially increased by an annual rate of 15.5% in June, signaling that the economy hit bottom last May. Upcoming revisions and updates would confirm whether June’s jump in monthly GDP was a sign of a turning point or a downswing outlier in the United States business cycle. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in June, the same as in in May…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final monthly estimate of June 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, August 7, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
May monthly GDP falls for a fourth month in a row (final vintage)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in May to $16,769 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-34.8%) in the three months to May 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in May, the same as in in April…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash estimate of June 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, July 9, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
June Leading Barometer Straight Up, All Components Rose!
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 3, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 5.2 percent in June, following an increase of 0.3 percent in May. Wow! All of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 85 percent in June, following 100% recession-probabilities in in the two previous months ...", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
May Leading Barometer Signals Turning Point to Recovery
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 8, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 0.3 percent in May, following a decrease of 7.2 percent in April. Four of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 100 percent in May..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
April 2020 final estimate confirms biggest monthly fall since 1959 in monthly-GDP™ history
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in April to $17,438 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-20.8%) in the three months to April 2020. It is the biggest decline in real monthly GDP, since the concept was introduced about two decades ago, with history data starting in January 1959. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in April, up from 99.6% in March…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash vintage of May 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Monday, June 8, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
April preliminary monthly estimate of U.S. monthly-GDP™ visualizes a deep contraction
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 22, 2020… the preliminary monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in April to $17,461 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-20.6%) in the three months to April 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in April, up from 99.6% in March…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final vintage of April 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), on Wednesday, June 3, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
May Consumer Optimism Soars Signaling an Upcoming Big Boom
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 18, 2020… U.S. consumer confidence™ falls in May for a third month in a row. e-forecasting.com's conventional, "statistically low order" barometer, reflects the change in mood of Americans over the next six months for the world's largest market consisting of $15 trillion consumer spending per year. Derived from deep diving into higher order analytics, advanced thinking processes driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and ever-changing (dynamic) optimization, the monthly innovative “consumer optimism” barometer, which in May crosses the inevitable chasm between what’s next and what’s now,"...visualizes to thought leaders a rising optimism about the economy over the next six months," said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor at the University of New Hampshire and editor-in-chief of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Digest.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
March final monthly estimate of monthly-GDP™ visualizes contraction for the United States
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 8, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a substantial fall in March to $18,679 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-4.8%) in the three months to March 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 99.6% in March, up from 74.4% in February…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash vintage of April 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), on Thursday, May 14, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
March flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes 2020 first quarter growth at 0.9%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 14, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, fell in March to $19,230 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+0.9%) in the three months to March 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 27% in March, up from 14.9% in February…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
January 2020 final U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth at 2.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, March 6, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in January to $19,299 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.3%) in the three months to January 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.2% in January, up from 6.7% in December…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
January 2020 flash U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth at 2.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 7, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in January to $19,299 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.3%) in the three months to January 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.2% in January, up from 6.7% in December…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
December's final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP on a growth path of (+2.1%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 7, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in December to $19,244 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.1%) in the three months to December 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 9.1% in December, up from 7.6% in November…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Export Demand, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in January 2020
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 4, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 1.2 percent in January, following an increase of 0.1 percent in December. Four of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed synergically to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 3 percent in January..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
December flash vintage of U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth of 1.3% for the fourth quarter of 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 14, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in December to $19,199 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.3%) in the three months to December 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 14.1% in December, up from 11.8% in November…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Housing Demand, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in December
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 4, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 0.2 percent in December, following a decrease of 0.3 percent in November. Four of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed synergically to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 12 percent in December..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November's final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP on a growth path of (+1.5%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 4, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in November to $19,176 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.5%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 12.5% in November, up from 9.5% in October…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November preliminary vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 16.7%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 31, 2019… e-forecasting.com's preliminary vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in November to $19,146 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.1%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 16.7% in November, up from 12.1% displayed in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 22.6%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 9, 2019… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, fell in November to $19,112 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+0.7%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 22.6% in November, up from 14.6% displayed in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
October flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 13.4%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 7, 2019… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in October to $19,133 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP ™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.4%) in the three months to October 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 13.4% in October, up from 9.7% displayed in the September issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Solid Gains in Exports, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in October
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 0.9 percent in October, following a zero-growth reading in September. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 12 percent in October..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
U.S. Leading Barometer Stalled in September
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, stayed constant in September, following a decrease of 2.1 percent in August. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 38 percent in September..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
U.S. Leading Barometer Fell in August
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 3, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, fell 2.1 percent in August, following a decrease of 0.5 percent in July. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 70 percent in August..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.
 Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Consumer Confidence falls in September
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com™ earliest, final and never revised reading of U.S. consumer confidence, for the world's largest consumer market of $15 trillion purchases per year, falls in September, for a second month in a row. Using predictive intelligence on business-cycle analytics like monthly-gdp™, contraction chronology and consumers' expectations, the model displays that "… the probability for an upcoming recession rose to 49.7% in September from 22.5% in August. As a result, the probability for a future expansion posted a reading of 50.3%...", said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor at the University of New Hampshire and editor-in-chief of the Digest. In the published today September issue of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Digest, the barometer of consumers' outlook, which visualizes Americans' optimism (pessimism) from analytics on what's next vs. what's now, "...predicts slowing optimism for business activity over the next six months," said Suwen Duan, VP for Artificial Intelligence (AI) at e-forecasting.com, scientist at MIT, and editor of the Digest.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
August Flash U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 11.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 14, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in August by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.6% to $19,084 billion. August's flash monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.8%) in the three months to August 2019 from the previous period - three months to May 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.3% in August, up from 8.7% displayed in the July issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 3, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in July by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.1% to $19,052 billion. July's final monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.8%) in the three months to July 2019 from the previous period - three months to April 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.5% in July, up from 7.9% displayed in the June issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Consumer Confidence fell in August
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com™ earliest and always final reading of U.S. consumer confidence, for the world's largest consumer market of $15 trillion, fell in August, after five consecutive monthly increases since last March.
In the published today August issue of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Digest, the barometer of consumers' outlook, which visualizes Americans' optimism (pessimism) from analytics on what's next vs. what's now, "...predicts rising optimism for business activity over the next six months," said Suwen Duan, VP for AI Research at e-forecasting.com, data scientist at MIT, and editor of the Digest.
 
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July flash estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in July by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.3% to $19,059 billion.
July's flash monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.9%) in the three months to July 2019 from the previous period - three months to April 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, predictive intelligence modeling visualized in today's published U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 10.7% in July, up from 7.6% displayed in the June issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
June preliminary estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 29, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in June by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.8% to $19,057 billion. June's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP visualizes the rolling three-month growth rate, a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, at (+2.1%), in the three months to June 2019 from the previous period, three months to March 2019. The latest reading of monthly GDP puts forward a recession warning analytic, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, which displays "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.3% in June, up from 6.6% reported in the May issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July monthly GDP on (+3.6%) path for this quarter
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 17, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in July to $18,581 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in US Monthly GDP Digest, the volume measure of the "King of statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 1.5% in July, following an increase of 3.2% in June.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Consumer Confidence Hits an All-Time High in August
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 16, 2018… e-forecasting.com's earliest and final-version of its US consumer confidence rose in August, following today's update of the largest in scope and size consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics™.
According to the highlights published today in the August issue of the US Consumer Confidence Digest, the popular consumer confidence measure, which is indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, increased 0.2 percent points in August to a reading of 111.7, after rising (+0.3 percent points) in July.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Monthly GDP rose 2.0% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 3, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in June to $18,545 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in the US Monthly GDP Digest, the "King of Statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 2.0% in June, following an increase of 3.5% in May.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Economy-Wide Leading Analytic Stalled in July
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 1, 2018…e-forecasting.com's economy-wide Leading Analytic (eLA)™, a composite indicator of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, held steady in July to a reading of 120.0. Set to equal 100 in 2005, eLA™ historically foreshadows US economic conditions five to six months ahead of the release of monthly GDP.
e-forecasting.com's early bird - released one to two months ahead of the traditional leading indicators made by the Conference Board and OECD - stayed constant in July, after an increase of 0.4 percent in June.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Leading Predictive Analytic Rose in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 7, 2018…The e-forecasting.com Leading Economic Index (eLEI), a composite indicator of seven time-series forward looking predictive analytics, increased in June to a reading of 120.0. Set to equal 100 in 2005, eLEI historically foreshadows US economic conditions five to six months ahead of the release of monthly GDP.
e-forecasting.com's early bird - released one to two months ahead of the traditional leading indicators made by the Conference Board and OECD - rose 0.5 percent in June, after an increase of 0.8 percent in May.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Consumer Confidence Hits an All-Time High in July
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 12, 2018… The e-forecasting.com's earliest and complete monthly US consumer confidence rose in July, following today's update of the largest in scope and size consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics™.
According to the highlights published today in the July issue of the US Consumer Confidence Digest, the popular confidence measure, which is indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, increased 0.2 percent points in July to a reading of 111.6, after rising (+0.4 percent points) in June.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                              For research-data inquiries email:  research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Monthly GDP rose 0.7% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 20, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in June to $17,431 billion of chained 2009 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in the US Monthly GDP Digest, the "King of Statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 0.7% in June. Figures for June are preliminary and figures for May are revisions from preliminary data published last month.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                For research-data inquiries email:  research-data@e-forecasting.com
U.S. August 6, 2020 graph, economic leading barometer eLA, rose 2.8 percent in July


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