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March 2020 U.S. Economic Leading Barometer  March 2020 U.S. Economic Leading Barometer  
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April 2020 Leading Barometer on a Free Fall
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 1, 2020…leading barometer on a free fall for a second month in a row. April economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, fell 7.2 percent in April, following a decrease of 4.3 percent in March. “The housing component led the decline in the overall barometer (eLA™), falling by 4.2% in April, thus contributing nearly three-fifths or 60 percent to the collapse of the aggregate barometer..” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for an upcoming recession. By visualizing this month’s findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 100 percent in April, the same as in March..." said Suwen Duan, Senior Data Scientist at MIT, VP for Artificial Intelligence (AI) at e-forecasting.com, and editor of the Digest.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
March U.S. Leading Barometer Envisions Recession Probability at 100%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 3, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, fell 4.2 percent in March, following an increase of 0.1 percent in February. Only two of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 100 percent in March..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Export Demand, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in January 2020
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 4, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 1.2 percent in January, following an increase of 0.1 percent in December. Four of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed synergically to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 3 percent in January..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.     
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Export Demand, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in January 2020
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 4, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 1.2 percent in January, following an increase of 0.1 percent in December. Four of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed synergically to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 3 percent in January..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Housing Demand, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in December
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 4, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 0.2 percent in December, following a decrease of 0.3 percent in November. Four of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed synergically to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 12 percent in December..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Weak Manufacturing, U.S. Leading Barometer Fell in November
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 6, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, fell 0.3 percent in November, following an increase of 0.9 percent in October. Only three of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed synergically to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 21 percent in November..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Solid Gains in Exports, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in October
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 0.9 percent in October, following a zero-growth reading in September. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 12 percent in October..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
U.S. Leading Barometer Stalled in September
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, stayed constant in September, following a decrease of 2.1 percent in August. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 38 percent in September..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
U.S. Leading Barometer Fell in August
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 3, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, fell 2.1 percent in August, following a decrease of 0.5 percent in July. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 70 percent in August..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.
 Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Leading Barometer Fell in June 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economy wide Leading Analytic (eLA) ™ ™, a composite of seven time-series predictive analytics, edged down 0.8% in June, following a (+0.5%) change in the previous month. In June, only one of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed by synergy to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economy wide Leading Analytic (eLA) ™  ™ provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. “The probability for the U.S. economy to enter a recession in the next six to nine months, posted a reading of 14% in June…” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, according to today’s published comments in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in May 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economy wide Leading Analytic (eLA) ™  ™, a composite of seven forward-looking time-series predictive analytics edged up 0.5% in May, following a nil reading of change in the previous month. Based on synergy-driven methodology to detect future turning points in the business cycle more effectively than the sum of its parts, e-forecastng.com leading gauge of U.S. business conditions, is used to estimate monthly predictions of the “probability for an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months, which hit 3% in May…” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in published comments in the latest issue of U.S. Leading Indicators Digest.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Leading Barometer Held Steady in April 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economy wide Leading Analytic (eLA) ™  ™, a composite of seven forward-looking time-series predictive analytics held steady in April, following a (0.8%) change in the previous month. Based on synergy-driven methodology to detect future turning points in the business cycle more effectively than the sum of its parts, e-forecastng.com leading gauge of U.S. business conditions, is used to estimate monthly predictions of the “probability for an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months, which hit 7% in April…” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in published comments in the latest issue of U.S. Leading Indicators Digest.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Leading Barometer Advanced in March 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economy wide Leading Analytic (eLA) ™  ™, a composite of seven forward-looking time-series predictive analytics, went up 0.8% in March, following a (1.3%) change in the previous month. Based on synergy-driven methodology to detect future turning points in the business cycle more effectively than the sum of its parts, e-forecastng.com leading gauge of U.S. business conditions, is used to estimate monthly predictions of the “probability for an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months, which hit 1% in March…” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in published comments in the latest issue of U.S. Leading Indicators Digest.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Leading Barometer Increased in February 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, March 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economy wide Leading Analytic (eLA) ™ ™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, went up 1.4% in February, following a (-0.3%) change in the previous month. Based on synergy-driven methodology to detect future turning points in the business cycle more effectively than the sum of its parts, e-forecastng.com leading gauge of U.S. business conditions, is used to estimate monthly predictions of the “probability for an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months, which hit 8% in February…” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in published comments in the latest issue of U.S. Leading Indicators Digest.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Leading Barometer Fell in January 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economy wide Leading Analytic (eLA) ™ ™, a composite of seven forward-looking time-series predictive analytics, fell 0.4% in January, following a (-1.9%) change in the previous month. Based on synergy-driven methodology to detect future turning points in the business cycle more effectively than the sum of its parts, e-forecastng.com leading gauge of U.S. business conditions, is used to estimate monthly predictions of the “probability for an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months, which hit 52% in January…” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in published comments in the latest issue of U.S. Leading Indicators Digest.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
US Leading Predictive Analytic Rose in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 7, 2018…The e-forecasting.com economy wide Leading Analytic (eLA) ™ , a composite indicator of seven time-series forward looking predictive analytics, increased in June to a reading of 120.0. Set to equal 100 in 2005, eLEI historically foreshadows US economic conditions five to six months ahead of the release of monthly GDP. e-forecasting.com's early bird - released one to two months ahead of the traditional leading indicators made by the Conference Board and OECD - rose 0.5 percent in June, after an increase of 0.8 percent in May.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
US Economy-Wide Leading Analytic Stalled in July
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 1, 2018…e-forecasting.com's economy-wide Leading Analytic (eLA)™, a composite indicator of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, held steady in July to a reading of 120.0. Set to equal 100 in 2005, eLA™ historically foreshadows US economic conditions five to six months ahead of the release of monthly GDP. e-forecasting.com's early bird - released one to two months ahead of the traditional leading indicators made by the Conference Board and OECD - stayed constant in July, after an increase of 0.4 percent in June.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
U.S. Leading Barometer Declined in December 2018
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 2, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economy wide Leading Analytic (eLA) ™  ™, a composite of seven forward-looking time-series predictive analytics, declined 1.9% in December, following a (-1.0%) change in the previous month. Based on synergy-driven methodology to detect future turning points in the business cycle more effectively than the sum of its parts, e-forecastng.com leading gauge of U.S. business conditions, is used to estimate monthly predictions of the “probability for an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months, which hit 69% in December…” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in published comments in the latest issue of U.S. Leading Indicators Digest.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Leading Barometer Declined in November 2018
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 1, 2018…e-forecasting.com's economy wide Leading Analytic (eLA) ™ ™, a composite of seven forward-looking time-series predictive analytics, declined 1.0% in November, following a (-0.9%) change in the previous month. Based on synergy-driven methodology to detect future turning points in the business cycle more effectively than the sum of its parts, the U.S business cycle leading gauge, generates monthly predictions of the “probability for an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months … which hit 25% in November…” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in the latest issue of U.S. Leading Indicators Digest.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Leading Barometer Declined in October 2018
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 1, 2018…e-forecasting.com's economy wide Leading Analytic (eLA) ™  ™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, declined 0.9% in October, following a (+0.8%) change in the previous month. Based on synergy-driven methodology to detect future turning points in the business cycle more effectively than the sum of time-series data parts, the U.S business cycle leading gauge, generates monthly predictions of the “probability for an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months … which hit 14% in October…” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in the latest issue of U.S. Leading Indicators Digest.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in September 2018
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 1, 2018…e-forecasting.com's economy wide Leading Analytic (eLA) ™  ™, a composite of seven forward-looking time-series predictive analytics, rose 0.8% in September, following a (+0.4%) change in the previous month. Based on synergy-driven methodology to detect future turning points in the business cycle more effectively than the sum of its parts, the U.S business cycle leading gauge, generates monthly predictions of the “probability for an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months … which hit 1% in September…” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in the latest issue of U.S. Leading Indicators Digest.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com

March 2020 U.S. Economic Leading Barometer















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