State Leading Indicators
Most discussions of leading indicators focus on the national
economy. However, regional leading indicators are also
important, and they can vary significantly from one region
Analysis of regional leading indicators
can help businesses plan investments, project sales, decide
whether it is a good time to enter new markets, or identify
future growth in existing markets. A look at any state’s
leading indicator illustrates how future trends and cyclical
behavior can differ from the national average and from other
e-forecasting uses the NBER/Conference Board
methodology, the founders of the national index, to create a
consistent set of leading indicators for the 50 states. Each
state’s composite leading index includes forward-looking
indicators from the labor markets, housing, manufacturing,
consumer expectations, foreign demand for state products,
and financial activity metrics.
Our unique state
leading indicators are published in statewide business
publications under a co-branding project to help provide
business leaders with this unique and timely state-level
information. Currently, we have these partnerships with
publications in New Hampshire, Vermont, Florida and Colorado
with New Hampshire Business Review, Vermont Business
Magazine, Orlando Business Journal and Northern Colorado
Business Report, respectively.
Why State Leading Indicators?
It is important to look at the state level business cycle
because they are not always in sync with the national cycle.
Due to this, state leading indicators improve regional
forecast accuracy in comparison to a single national leading
indicator. Based on research by the Philadelphia Federal
Reserve, only 15 states have had recessions that correspond
to all four national downturns since 1979. At the same time,
they found that there were 22 states have had at least one
recession that did not correspond to a national recession.
With this in mind, it is clear that getting a more granular
look at the economy may prove to be beneficial to your