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State Leading Indicators
of 50 States and
the District of Columbia
by e-forecasting

(Graph September 2, 2012)

State Leading Indicators

by e-forecasting

Most discussions of leading indicators focus on the national economy. However, regional leading indicators are also important, and they can vary significantly from one region to another.

Analysis of regional leading indicators can help businesses plan investments, project sales, decide whether it is a good time to enter new markets, or identify future growth in existing markets. A look at any state’s leading indicator illustrates how future trends and cyclical behavior can differ from the national average and from other states.

e-forecasting uses the NBER/Conference Board methodology, the founders of the national index, to create a consistent set of leading indicators for the 50 states. Each state’s composite leading index includes forward-looking indicators from the labor markets, housing, manufacturing, consumer expectations, foreign demand for state products, and financial activity metrics.

Our unique state leading indicators are published in statewide business publications under a co-branding project to help provide business leaders with this unique and timely state-level information. Currently, we have these partnerships with publications in New Hampshire, Vermont, Florida and Colorado with New Hampshire Business Review, Vermont Business Magazine, Orlando Business Journal and Northern Colorado Business Report, respectively.

Why State Leading Indicators?

It is important to look at the state level business cycle because they are not always in sync with the national cycle. Due to this, state leading indicators improve regional forecast accuracy in comparison to a single national leading indicator. Based on research by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, only 15 states have had recessions that correspond to all four national downturns since 1979. At the same time, they found that there were 22 states have had at least one recession that did not correspond to a national recession. With this in mind, it is clear that getting a more granular look at the economy may prove to be beneficial to your business success.

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