e-forecasting.com releases eLEI for December

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact:
Maria E. Simos
65 Newmarket Road
Durham, NH 03824
Phone: 603-868-7436
http://www.e-forecasting.com
info@e-forecasting.com

e-forecasting.com releases eLEI for December

eLEI PROVIDED FIRST GLIMPSE OF RECESSION IN JULY


Durham, NH – January 3rd 2009 – Economic research firm e-forecasting.com today announced that their eLEI, US leading economic indicator, decreased in December.

Following a decrease of 2.8 percent in November, the Real Time U.S. Leading Economic Indicator went down 2.2 percent in December to 96.6. The index is set to average 100 in 2000.

On a year-over-year basis, eLEI in December declined by an annual rate of 13.0 percent compared to the same month of last year.

In a note to clients, CEO Maria Simos pointed discussed the dating of the recession by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research and the forward-looking properties of the eLEI. She wrote, “on Monday, July 2nd, 2007, [our leading indicator] provided the first signal of the current recession that began in December 2007, when it reached its cyclical high reading of 114.6.” This point validates the lead time of eLEI, which is about five to six months.

Only one of the seven components that make up the Real Time U.S. Leading Economic Indicator improved in December: Consumer expectations. The six components that had a negative or zero contribution to the composite leading
indicator were: Manufacturers' new orders; Stock prices; Housing activity; Interest rate spread; Manufacturers' productivity and Foreign demand.

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary real-time economic indicators and produces company and industry-specific leading indicators for its clients. In cooperation with its affiliate, Infometrica, Inc., e-forecasting.com works with business publications and clients across the globe to provide industry, country and state-level economic content on a monthly and quarterly basis thus their predictive intelligence input is used by practitioners around the world.

For complimentary chart to accompany this, or further information: http://www.e-forecasting.com  or

For a full press release including charts, please see attached PDF or contact: info@e-forecasting.com
Phone: 603-868-7436
 


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