FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact:
Maria E. Simos
65 Newmarket Road
Durham, NH 03824
Phone: 603-868-7436
http://www.e-forecasting.com
info@e-forecasting.com
e-forecasting.com releases eLEI for
December
eLEI PROVIDED FIRST GLIMPSE OF RECESSION
IN JULY
Durham, NH January 3rd 2009
Economic research firm e-forecasting.com today announced that
their eLEI, US leading economic indicator, decreased in
December.
Following a decrease of 2.8 percent in
November, the Real Time U.S. Leading Economic Indicator went
down 2.2 percent in December to 96.6. The index is set to
average 100 in 2000.
On a year-over-year basis, eLEI in
December declined by an annual rate of 13.0 percent compared to
the same month of last year.
In a note to clients, CEO
Maria Simos pointed discussed the dating of the recession by the
Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of
Economic Research and the forward-looking properties of the eLEI.
She wrote, on Monday, July 2nd, 2007, [our leading indicator]
provided the first signal of the current recession that began in
December 2007, when it reached its cyclical high reading of
114.6. This point validates the lead time of eLEI, which is
about five to six months.
Only one of the seven
components that make up the Real Time U.S. Leading Economic
Indicator improved in December: Consumer expectations. The six
components that had a negative or zero contribution to the
composite leading
indicator were: Manufacturers' new orders;
Stock prices; Housing activity; Interest rate spread;
Manufacturers' productivity and Foreign demand.
e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and
consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment
using proprietary real-time economic indicators and produces
company and industry-specific leading indicators for its
clients. In cooperation with its affiliate, Infometrica, Inc.,
e-forecasting.com works with business publications and clients
across the globe to provide industry, country and state-level
economic content on a monthly and quarterly basis thus their
predictive intelligence input is used by practitioners around
the world.
For complimentary chart to accompany this, or
further information:
http://www.e-forecasting.com or
For a full press release including charts, please
see attached PDF or contact:
info@e-forecasting.com
Phone: 603-868-7436
# # #
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