e-forecasting.com releases Global Activity Index

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GLOBAL ACTIVITY INDEX AT 52 FOR 2008 Q3

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact:
Maria E. Simos
65 Newmarket Road
Durham, NH 03824
Phone: 603-868-7436
http://www.e-forecasting.com
info@e-forecasting.com

e-forecasting.com RELEASES GLOBAL ACTIVITY INDEX

GLOBAL ACTIVITY INDEX AT 52 FOR 2008 Q3


Durham, NH – September 8th 2008 – Economic research firm e-forecasting.com today announced that global activity index hit 52 in the third quarter of 2008.

Using the ‘soft data’ findings of the World Economic Survey, a 92-country composite global business activity index is constructed by e-forecasting.com to evaluate and forecast the short-term worldwide business cycle. A reading of 50, the flatline, is used as reference in evaluating the wave of alternating booms and busts that mark the global economy. In the third quarter of 2008, our global business activity index registered 52, the lowest reading since the fourth quarter of 2003, indicating a flirting with a global downswing.

Historically, changes in our global activity index mirror the growth rate of worldwide industrial production. Based on the real time behavior of our indicator, growth in industrial activity in the world’s leading economies is estimated to have continued its moderation in the first three quarters of 2008.

In a note to clients, CEO Maria Simos re-emphasized, “Our first quarter of 2008 global forecast released on February 2008, noted, ‘The dollar will firmly enter an upward trend that will continue in 2009.’ The bursting of the euro bubble has begun. After reaching a peak on April 22, 2008 at a rate of 1.601 against the US dollar, the euro has fallen 8.3 percent by the end of August to a rate of 1.468. We continue to forecast a fall in the euro and a probability of 45 percent for the euro to reach parity against the dollar within 16 months.”

By modeling business executives’ two-quarter-ahead expectations into a dynamic high frequency forecast, we predict growth in the global business activity index to weaken further in the last quarter of 2008 and early in 2009. Global industrial production is forecast to experience negative growth rates in the next two quarters.

The e-forecasting.com composite index of global economic activity also serves as an indicator of worldwide demand and, consequently, its change from a year ago mirrors the year-to-year growth rate in the demand for internationally traded goods and services. Derived from the opinions of about 1,000 business experts from 92 countries, e-forecasting’s composite global activity index has shown a strong performance record in tracking the volume of international trade, measured by global exports adjusted for price changes. Following gains in 2007 at a nearly 7.0 percent growth rate, growth in the volume of international trade is estimated to continue its slowing in the rest of 2008. Looking forward, the predictive power of our global activity index suggests that growth in the volume of world trade will bottom out in the last quarter of 2008, recovering in the course of 2009.

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary real-time economic indicators and produces company and industry-specific leading indicators for its clients. In cooperation with its affiliate, Infometrica, Inc., e-forecasting.com works with business publications and clients across the globe to provide industry, country and state-level economic content on a monthly and quarterly basis thus their predictive intelligence input is used by practitioners around the world.

For a full press release including charts, please see attached PDF or contact: info@e-forecasting.com
Phone: 603-868-7436
 


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