FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Maria E. Simos
65 Newmarket Road
Durham, NH 03824
e-forecasting.com releases North America Semiconductor Leading
NORTH AMERICA SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP SALES LEADING INDICATOR GAINS GROUND IN AUGUST
Durham, NH –October 2nd 2008
Economic research firm e-forecasting.com today announced that the North American Semiconductor Chip Sales leading indicator rose by 0.5 percent to a reading of 204.2, following a decline of 0.7 percent in July. The index was set to average 100 in 2000.
The indicator, comparable to the company’s other global regional semiconductor industry indicators for Japan, Asia Pacific and Europe, is a forward-looking composite index that forecasts six months ahead, on average, business activity in the region for sales for semiconductors.
“The six month growth rate has now gone up the last four readings, hopefully showing that the industry is slowly getting out of some hard times. Typically, once the direction of the index moves from negative to positive, the trend continues,” noted CEO Maria Simos. The six-month growth rate is commonly used in business cycle analysis for both signaling impending turning points in business activity and as a recession monitor. In August, the chip sales leading indicator rose 1.5 percent, after an increase of 0.3 percent in July. Consecutive negative values in the indicator's six-month growth rate predict an end to an economic expansion and the beginning of an upcoming recession.
Five of the nine components that make up the leading indicator for semiconductor sales in the Americas market improved in August: Productivity Barometer, US Manufacturing; Interest Rate Spread, US Financial Markets; Change in Profit Margins, US Semiconductors; US Housing Market Barometer and Long-Term US Consumer Expectations. The four components that had a negative contribution to the leading indicator for semiconductor sales in the Americas market were: Weekly Production Hours, US Semiconductors; Non-US Demand Outlook, 35-Country Leading Index; Ratio of Orders to Inventories, US Electronics and Business Activity, US Manufacturers.
e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary real-time economic indicators and produces company and industry-specific leading indicators for its clients. In cooperation with its affiliate, Infometrica, Inc., e-forecasting.com works with business publications and clients across the globe to provide industry, country and state-level economic content on a monthly and quarterly basis thus their predictive intelligence input is used by practitioners around the world.
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