FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Maria E. Simos
65 Newmarket Road
Durham, NH 03824
e-forecasting.com releases Japan Semiconductor Equipment Sales Leading Indicator
LEADING INDICATOR OF JAPANESE CHIP SALES DROPS IN AUGUST
Durham, NH USA– October 2nd, 2008
– Economic research firm e-forecasting.com today announced that the Japan Semiconductor Equipment Sales leading indicator dropped by 0.1 percent to a reading of 170.4, following an decline of 0.7 percent in July. The index was set to average 100 in 2000.
The indicator, comparable to the company’s other global regional semiconductor industry indicators for North America, Asia Pacific and Europe, is a forward-looking composite index that forecasts six months ahead, on average, business activity in the region for equipment sales for semiconductors.
“The six month growth rate is starting to trend down and is quickly losing some of the momentum gained in the early part of this year. If this trend continues, the industry could face a slowdown at the end of the year and early in 09,” announced CEO Maria Simos. The six-month growth rate is commonly used in business cycle analysis for both signaling impending turning points in business activity and as a recession monitor. In August, the chip equipment leading indicator rose 2.5 percent, after an increase of 3.0 percent in July. Consecutive negative values in the indicator's six-month growth rate predict an end to an economic expansion and the beginning of an upcoming recession.
Three of the seven components that make up the leading indicator for Japanese sales of semiconductor equipment improved in August: Productivity Barometer, US Manufacturing; Change in Profit Margins, US Semiconductors and Japanese Leading Diffusion Index. The four components that had a negative contribution to the leading indicator for Japanese semiconductor equipment sales were: Japan Competitiveness, 27-country Yen Index; Non-Japan Demand Prospects, Top-34 partner-countries; Japanese Short-term Interest Rates and Japanese Yield Curve.
e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary real-time economic indicators and produces company and industry-specific leading indicators for its clients. In cooperation with its affiliate, Infometrica, Inc., e-forecasting.com works with business publications and clients across the globe to provide industry, country and state-level economic content on a monthly and quarterly basis thus their predictive intelligence input is used by practitioners around the world.
For a full press release including charts,
please see attached PDF or contact:
Maria E. Simos
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