|
|
UNITED STATES HOTEL MARKET
FORECASTS
Monthly Hotel
Forecast for United States markets are produced in
real time by Hotel Insights to provide a consistent with the
global economic climate view for the overall industry, its
price-segments call 'scales', and the top destinations.
Building on historical information, the hotel forecast focus
predominantly on recent and future developments at the
local, state, national and international levels. Designed to
provide competitive advantage to hoteliers and executives in
hotel-related business, each Monthly Hotel Forecast
and accompanying analyses are conditional on a consistent
set of continuously changing and/or expected to change
policies and underlying economic and financial conditions
around the world. Particularly, the forecast is
significantly driven by fiscal and monetary policies in the
destination's country, in other countries feeding the
destination and/or in regional unions; additional global
drivers include multi-country determined exchange rates, and
oil and non-oil commodity prices.
Property
Level Forecasts.
Hotel Insights offer a unique, client-specific add-in to the
Hotel Market Forecast, which features forecasts of
performance analytics for client's individual property
operating in the market. For first time, clients on a
monthly basis could track not only the past and present but
also the future of their property's performance relative to
the market and take actions on possible policy changes to
strengthen their competitive advantage
Methodology
Many properly-used drivers minimize the risk of
large forecast errors, common in conventional forecasting
models, which use one driver like GDP to generate forecasts
for hotel markets. Forecast errors from GDP-only-based
models are sizable due to extensive and considerable GDP
revisions and policy-driven GDP projections.
Hotel Insights'
monthly multi-equation forecasting model integrates hundreds
of mostly forward-looking influential monthly indicators
comprised of key drivers such as energy prices and interest
rates; industry-specific and geo-centric metrics such as
travel intentions and foreign tourist demand by feeding
country; domestic and international policies, and
geopolitical events.
The methodology is based on the
seminal works of Burns & Mitchell (1947), Sargent & Sims
(1977), Stock & Watson (1989, 2004) in "Forecasting Using
Many Predictors" and Bernanke & Boivin (2003) in "Monetary
Policy in a Data Rich Environment."
The basis of
Hotel Insights forecasting engine is to use any available
relevant information which explains decision-making about
the demand for and supply of hotel services. Each hotel
market is rich in drivers data, related to geo areas (city,
state, national, and international), behavior of economic
agents seeking services (consumers, business, government),
survey indicators (expectations, confidence, sentiment,
intentions to spend on travel), and financial conditions.
Navigate
The tree below provides
navigation links of Monthly Hotel Forecast for the United
States markets:
- National (country-wide) Monthly Hotel Forecast
- US Chain Scales Monthly Hotel Forecast
- Top 25 Markets plus Las Vegas Monthly Hotel Forecast
|
|
To purchase Hotel Predictive Analytics
