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HIP: Hotel Industry Pulse  | HIL: Hotel Industry Leading Indicator | Hotel Industry HIP and HIL Press Release

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Hotel Predictive Analytics





Phoenix Hotel Predictive Analytics
A monthly digest from e-forecasting.com Hotel Insights

e-forecasting.com's Phoenix Hotel Predictive Analytics is the most exciting and useful predictive intelligence analytic technology platform for timely monitoring current and future business conditions of the city's hotels. Analytics convert data into information enabling a meaningful and consistent measurement of performance relative to business plan, industry, and national trends, or prior periods. The goal of Phoenix Hotel Predictive Analytics is to transform information into insights by interpreting data in a deeper way and providing actionable recommendations for improving decision making in the hotel market.

Rather than simply collecting data, the analytics technology relies on the aggregation of data. This approach connects data, helping integrate facts in a meaningful way. The process first adjusts raw data for recurring events such as seasonality and then filters out outliers such as specific events - so called blind spots - which debilitate informed decisions; second, it aggregates adjusted data to groups of similarly-moving contextual analytics - called composites. In sum, the process translates facts into action, deploying unique business intelligence for the Phoenix hotel market.

The robust fact-based analytic technology platform of Phoenix Hotel Predictive Analytics begins with the creation of an unrivaled business intelligence analytic, the Hotel Industry Pulse (HIP), which measures the pulse of current business conditions for the city's hotels relative to the past. Then, for the first time, the platform provides predictive intelligence by delivering the Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) analytic from a fact-based forward looking support system of city-specific leading indicators. Lastly and uniquely, using advanced statistical techniques, the analytic technology platform measures the probabilities of upcoming turning points in the direction of change in Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR).

What Questions Can be Answered by Phoenix Hotel Predictive Analytics

Phoenix Hotel Business Intelligence

Q: What's happening now in Phoenix hotels?  
  • How is the Phoenix hotel market performing now?
  • When did this begin? What's its depth?
  • Has this happened before? When? How many times?
A: Visualize Phoenix Hotel Industry Pulse (HIP)
  • Phoenix's HIP, a composite analytic of supply and demand hotel indicators, tracks monthly overall business activity for the city’s hotels, like GDP for the economy. HIP's higher order analytics, such as growth rates and ratios, measure the speed of change and the depth of a business upswing or downswing. HIP also defines hotel industry recessions in the Phoenix hotel market by providing the chronology of the city's hotel business cycle - from booms to busts.
  • The Phoenix HIP's turning points define the chronology of the city's business cycle, which can be compared to the national overall business cycle. The analytic helps to historically assess whether Phoenix's hotels enter (or exit from) a recession before, after or at the same time with the national economy.
    Visualize (charts and/or tables) an anatomy of the business cycle for a hotel market in Box 1.
  • Hotel performance statistics behave in line with the business cycle. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) for Phoenix's hotels dips when the Phoenix HIP declines; RevPAR begins to recover when HIP signals an end to recession.
    Visualize (charts and/or tables) an anatomy of RevPAR during an industry recession for a hotel market in Box 2.

Phoenix Hotel Predictive Intelligence

Q: What's next for Phoenix Hotels?
A: Visualize Two Phoenix Hotel Predictive Analytics

  • City-specific Hotel Industry Leading (HIL)
  • Recession (expansion) probabilities for future performance of Phoenix hotels

Phoenix's Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) is a single predictive analytic that sheds light on the future performance of the city's hotels. Phoenix HIL is a composite of leading indicators related to the city, state, national, and international future business climate, which drive visitors to the city's hotels. HIL historically and consistently changes direction before HIP. Thus, Phoenix HIL is a forward looking composite that leads hotel performance statistics like RevPAR.
Visualize (charts and/or tables) an anatomy of HIL foretelling future movements in RevPAR for a hotel market in Box 3.

Phoenix's HIL is generated monthly using the following leading analytics:

  • State leading index (composite of consumer, business and financial statewide forward looking components)
  • Future foreign demand for visiting Phoenix (composite from about two dozen countries measuring the climate for international traveling)
  • Future business climate in top-5 domestic markets feeding Phoenix hotel market
  • Regional consumer expectations
  • Index of attitudes for domestic travel
  • Energy prices
  • Measures of financial and credit conditions
  • Labor markets tightness
Phoenix's Hotel Recession (Expansion) Probabilities are calculated by applying probabilistic econometric models, which relate historically the recession (expansion) dates derived from Phoenix's Hotel Industry Pulse (HIP) index to the forward-looking Phoenix Hotel Industry Leading (HIL). This process generates forecasts of probabilities of an upcoming recession (expansion) and captures future business activity for Phoenix's hotels.
Visualize (charts and/or tables) tracking the risk of an upcoming recession for a hotel market in Box 4.

The Bottom Line

Market predictive analytics improve decision making yet there is hesitation in using them due to the high costs and complexity to create them. With our Phoenix Hotel Predictive Analytics, our team has done the hard work for you. Now you can deploy these analytics created by our team of seasoned economists and researchers to enhance your bottom line.

"Organizations that fail to investing the proper analytic technologies will be unable to compete in a fact-based business environment¹"
                                                Thomas Davenport

Since our team has worked hard to create these analytics, you do not have to spend your resources doing so. We have prepared them for you with unparalleled expertise in hotel market forecasting and analytics and are able to provide Phoenix Hotel Predictive Analytics directly to you at a reasonable rate.

Now is the time to inform and act. Deploy Phoenix's hotel insights and operationalize predictive analytics to drive decisions and action in your hotel business.

Each issue of Phoenix Hotel Predictive Analytics includes predictions of the key performance hotel metrics:
  • Phoenix Hotel Industry Pulse (HIP)
  • Phoenix Hotel Industry Leading (HIL)
  • Phoenix probability for a change in the direction in Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR)
In addition to Phoenix market as part of the top-25 US destinations, Hotel Insights' coverage of hotel predictive analytics continues to expand around the globe with countrywide predictive intelligence from Europe, South East Asia (including China), Australia, Dubai, Canada, and Central and South America.

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  1 IBM, Capitalizing on Complexity: Insights from the Global Chief Executive Officer Study, 2010, p.47.

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