October 2011 Press Release of e-forecasting

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HIL: Recession probability nears threshold:


October 31st, 2011
e-forecasting.com eNews for the Hotel Industry

DURHAM, New Hampshire —  The likelihood of future business activity in the U.S. hotel industry declined in September, according to the latest reading of e-forecasting.com’s Hotel Industry Leading indicator, or HIL.

HIL, a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, fell by 0.8% during September to 99.4, following a decline of 0.3% during August. The index was set to equal 100 in 2005.  

The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL, registered 44.2% in September, up from 13.2% reported in August. When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50% for more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle. 

“The probability of a recession in for the U.S. hotel industry increased near the threshold of 50% in September,” said Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com. “The rule of thumb is that if this probability shoots over the threshold of 50 for three months, then a recession is imminent.”

HIL's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the forthcoming turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 0.8% in September, following a positive rate of 2.8% in August. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.

Three of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator had a positive contribution to its change in September: Hotel Profitability; Yield Curve and Oil Prices. Six indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in September: Jobs Market; Hotel Worker Hours; Foreign Demand; New Orders; Housing Activity and Vacation Barometer.

The US hotel industry leading indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry.

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