Strong hotel fundamentals fuel HIL increase:
|January 25th 2011
|e-forecasting.com eNews for the Hotel Industry
DURHAM, New Hampshire — The
United States Hotel Industry Leading Indicator increased 0.9%
during December after a slight decline of 0.1% during November,
according to economic research firm e-forecasting.com in
conjunction with STR.
The Hotel Industry Leading Indicator,
or HIL, is a composite, monthly leading indicator for the U.S.
hotel industry that leads the industry’s business activity four to
five months on average. The latest monthly change brought the index
to a reading of 114.4. The index was set to equal 100 in 2000.
HIL’s six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points,
increased 1.6% during December. The growth rate is an improvement
over November's reading of 0.4%. The industry’s long-term annual
growth rate is 3.5%, the same as the annual growth rate of the
country’s overall economic activity.
Six of the nine
components that make up the Hotel Industry Leading Indicator had a
positive contribution during December: Labor Market Tightness;
Weekly Hours in Hotels; Hotel Profitability; Interest Rate Spread;
New Orders for Manufactured Goods; and National Vacation Barometer.
Three of the nine components had a negative or zero contribution to
HIL during December: International Visitors Future Demand; Oil
Prices; and Housing Activity.
“In December, we saw the Hotel
Industry Leading Indicator picking up once again. Along with the
monthly increase, we saw improvements in the six-month growth rate,
which bodes well for the second quarter," said Maria Simos, CEO of
The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading
Indicator, or HIL, is a monthly leading indicator for the U.S.
hotel industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the
industry’s real-time indicator, HIL was built as a composite
indicator that uses nine different components that have, on
average, led the industry four to five months in advance of a
change in direction in the industry business cycle. The indicator
provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S.
- HIL increased 0.9% during December.
- The latest monthly change brought the index to a reading of 114.4.
- The six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, was up 1.6% for the month.