October 2011 Press Release of e-forecasting

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US hotel future business activity up in October:


November 22nd, 2011 
e-forecasting.com eNews for the Hotel Industry

DURHAM, New Hampshire — Future business activity in the U.S. hotel industry increased during October, according to the latest reading of e-forecasting.com’s Hotel Industry Leading indicator, or HIL.

HIL, a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, edged up 0.2% during October to 101.2 following an increase of 0.4% during September. The index was set to equal 100 in 2005. 

The indicator’s six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the forthcoming turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 3.5% during October following a positive rate of 3.7% during September. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.       
The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 2.3% in October, up from 1.9% reported in September. When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50% for a more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle.

“With the comprehensive October HIL report, we see some of the components which make up the indicator fighting each other. The domestic vacation barometer retreated dramatically, while other indicators, like the factors that cover employment, worked to keep HIL on an even keel,” said Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com.

Five of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading indicator had a positive contribution to its change in October: Jobs Market; Hotel Worker Hours; Yield Curve; New Orders and Housing Activity. Four indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in October: Hotel Profitability; Foreign Demand; Oil Prices and Vacation Barometer.
“The leading nature of the HIL shows us that hoteliers should be watchful and looking for ways to maintain their bottom line,” Simos said. “With consumer sentiment near all-time lows, it will be dire to find creative ways get consumers and businesses in the door, while also maintaining rates. A delicate balancing act, indeed.” 

The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading indicator is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry.

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