October 2011 Press Release of e-forecasting

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Probability of US hotel recession rises in August:


September 20th, 2011 
e-forecasting.com eNews for the Hotel Industry

DURHAM, New Hampshire —  Future business activity in U.S. hotels went down in August, according to the latest reading of e-forecasting.com's Hotel Industry Leading indicator.

The Hotel Industry Leading indicator, or HIL, is a composite leading indicator that, on average, leads the U.S. hotel industry’s business activity four to five months in advance. The measure edged down 0.3% in August to 100, following an increase of 1% in July. The index was set to equal 100 in 2005.  

HIL's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the forthcoming turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 2.4% in August, slowing from July's rate of 3.3%. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.

The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 12% in August, up from 1.8% reported in July. When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50% for a more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle.
“Although the U.S. hotel industry continues to outperform the overall economy, we can see in the full August HIL report that consumers are really starting to worry about the stability of the economy and that it is starting to drag on hotels. The component that pulled down the HIL the most in August was the domestic vacation barometer. Consumers are scared and will be less likely to book travel,” said Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com.
Three of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise HIL had a positive contribution to its change in August: Yield Curve, Oil Prices and Housing Activity. Six indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in August: Jobs Market; Hotel Worker Hours; Hotel Profitability; Foreign Demand; New Orders and Vacation Barometer.

The US hotel industry leading indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry

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