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October 2011 Press Release of e-forecasting

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Business activity growth slows for US hotels:

EDITOR'S NOTE

November 17th, 2011
e-forecasting.com eNews for the Hotel Industry

DURHAM, New Hampshire — Business activity in U.S. hotels was flat during October, according to the latest reading of e-forecasting.com’s Hotel Industry Pulse index, or HIP.

HIP, a composite indicator that gauges monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, was flat at a reading of 105.3 in October, following an increase of 0.1 % in September. The index was set to equal 100 in 2005.   

HIP's six-month growth rate, which historically has confirmed the turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, had a positive rate of 3.9% in October, following a positive rate of 4.6% in September. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.

The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession, which is detected in real-time from HIP with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 10.5 % in October, down from 9.5% reported in September. When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50%, the U.S. hotel industry enters a recession.       

"By looking at the HIP, a current reading on the health of the US hotel market, we see that activity has slowed significantly over the last few months," said Evangelos Simos, chief economist of e-forecasting.com.  
 
Only one of the three demand and supply indicators of current business activity that constitute Hotel Industry's Pulse (HIP) Index had a positive contribution to its change in October: Spending on Hotels. The two of the three indicators of current business activity which had a negative or zero contribution to HIP's change in October were Hotel Jobs and Hotel Capacity.

“In the last 12 months—October 2010 to October 2011—overall economic activity, measured by e-forecasting.com's monthly U.S. GDP, rose by 1.4%,” Simos added. “Over the same period, economic activity in U.S. hotels, measured by HIP, increased by 5.5%.”
       
The Hotel Industry Pulse, or HIP for short, is a hotel industry indicator that was created to fill the void of a real-time monthly indicator for the hotel industry that captures current conditions. The indicator provides useful information about the timing and degree of the industry’s link with the US business cycle for the last four decades. Simply put, it tracks monthly overall business conditions in the industry, like an industry GDP, and points in a timely way to the changes in direction from growth to recession or vice versa. The composite indicator is made with the following components: revenues from consumers staying at hotels and motels adjusted for inflation, room occupancy rate and hotel employment, along with other key economic factors which influence hotel business activity.

 
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