Hotel Industry Leading Indicator weakens:
|November 10th, 2010
|e-forecasting.com eNews for the Hotel Industry
DURHAM, New Hampshire —
The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading Indicator decreased 1.1% during
September after a slight drop of 0.5% during August, reports
economic research firm e-forecasting.com in conjunction with STR.
The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading Indicator, or HIL, is a monthly
leading indicator for the U.S. hotel industry that, on average,
leads the industry’s business activity four to five months in
advance. The latest monthly change brought the index to a reading
of 113.3. The index was set to equal 100 in 2000.
HIL’s six-month growth rate, a signal
of turning points, went up by an annual rate of 1.8% in
September, after going up 5% in August. This compares to a
long-term annual growth rate of 3.5%, the same as the annual
growth rate of the state's overall economic activity.
Four of the nine components that make up Hotel
Industry's Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in
September: Labor Market Tightness; Interest Rate Spread; New
Orders for Manufactured Goods; and Oil Prices. Five of the
nine components had a negative or zero contribution to Hotel
Industry's Leading Indicator in September: Weekly Hours in
Hotels; Hotel Profitability; International Visitors Future
Demand; Housing Activity; and National Vacation Barometer.
“As noted the last few months, the
decline in the Hotel Industry Leading Indicator continued in
September. This month marks the first month since last
August that the six-month growth rate is below its long-term
trend, which historically means an upcoming slowdown in
growth for the industry,” said Maria Simos, CEO of
The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading
Indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator.
Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time
indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a
composite indicator that uses nine different components
that, on average, when put together have led the industry
four to five months in advance of a change in direction in
the industry business cycle.The indicator provides useful
information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel
- Indicator sits at 113.3 with latest monthly change.
- The six-month growth rate is 1.8% for September.
- Only four of nine components provided a positive contribution to HIL.