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Hotel Industry Leading indicator shows growth in March :
EDITOR'S NOTE
| May 6th, 2010 |
| e-forecasting.com eNews for the Hotel Industry |
 DURHAM, New Hampshire —
The United States Hotel Industry Leading indicator, or HIL, went up
0.4 percent during March, the second monthly increase after a
slight dip in January's reading, according to economic research
firm e-forecasting.com in conjunction with STR. The metric rose 0.5
percent in February.
HIL is a composite leading indicator for
the U.S. hotel industry that, on average, leads the industry’s
business activity four to five months in advance. The latest
increase brought the index to a reading of 111.7. The index was set
to equal 100 in 2000.
“This report shows that the
small loss in January for the Hotel Industry Leading indicator was
not a major indication of the industry heading back south," said
Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com. "Highlighted last month, the
domestic Vacation Barometer's continued weakness and the decline in
the six-month growth rate are concerning. If the barometer
continues to trend negatively, it is indicating the peak was in
January. We will closely keep our eye on these trends to best
identify the future turning point.”
HIL’s six-month growth
rate, which is a signal of turning points, went up by an annual
rate of 10.4 percent in March, after going up 11.5 percent in
February. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3.5
percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the country’s
overall economic activity. At the deepest part of the recession
during January 2009, the growth rate was down to negative 15.7
percent.
Five of the nine components that make up Hotel Industry's
Leading indicator had a positive contribution during March: Labor
Market Tightness; Hotel Profitability; International Visitors
Future Demand; Interest Rate Spread and New Orders for Manufactured
Goods. Four of the nine components had a negative or zero
contribution to HIL during March: Weekly Hours in Hotels; Oil
Prices; Housing Activity and a National Vacation Barometer.
The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading indicator, or HIL,
is a monthly leading indicator that provides useful information
about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry. Building off
the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S.
hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses
nine different components that, on average, have led the industry
four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the
industry business cycle.
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