HIL's October growth modest:
|December 3rd, 2010
|e-forecasting.com eNews for the Hotel Industry
DURHAM, New Hampshire —
Economic research firm e-forecasting.com in conjunction with Smith
Travel Research announced the United States Hotel Industry Leading
Indicator, HIL, went up in October. HIL went up 0.4% in October,
after a decrease of 1.1% in September.
HIL, a monthly
leading indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, is a composite
leading indicator that on average leads the industry’s business
activity four to five months in advance. The latest monthly change
brought the index to a reading of 113.7. The index was set to equal
100 in 2000.
Looking at its six-month growth rate, a
signal of turning points, the Hotel Industry's Leading Indicator
recorded growth of 1.7% during October, which was the same level
reached in September. This compares to a long-term annual growth
rate of 3.5%, the same as the annual growth rate of the states’
overall economic activity.
Seven of the nine components that
make up Hotel Industry's Leading Indicator had a positive
contribution in October: Labor Market Tightness; Weekly
Hours in Hotels; Hotel Profitability; Interest Rate Spread;
New Orders for Manufactured Goods; Housing Activity and
National Vacation Barometer. Two of the nine components had
a negative or zero contribution to Hotel Industry's Leading
Indicator in October: International Visitors Future Demand
and Oil Prices.
“October's HIL report
brings some light to the last few dark months. In October,
we see month-over-month growth and also the six-month growth
rate held steady at 1.7% rather than continuing its
nine-month run of declines. The industry is showing some
resiliency and we will look to next month's report to see if
the fundamentals continue to grow,” commented Maria Simos,
CEO of e-forecasting.com.
The U.S. Hotel Industry
Leading Indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading
indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking
success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel
industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses
nine different components that, on average, when put
together have led the industry four to five months in
advance of a change in direction in the industry business
cycle. It provides useful information about the future
direction of the U.S. hotel industry.
- HIL went up 0.4% in October, after a decrease of 1.1% in September.
- The HIL six-month growth rate is 1.7%.
- Seven of nine components made a positive contribution to the Indicator.