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Hotel Industry Leading Indicator growth slows:

EDITOR'S NOTE

September 2nd, 2010 
e-forecasting.com eNews for the Hotel Industry

DURHAM, New Hampshire — The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading Indicator, or HIL, increased 0.2 percent during July after going down 0.5 percent during June, according to research firm e-forecasting.com in conjunction with Smith Travel Research.
HIL is a monthly composite leading indicator that, on average, leads the U.S. hotel industry’s business activity four to five months in advance. The latest monthly change brought the index to a reading of 115.8. The index was set to equal 100 in 2000.
     
HIL’s six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, went up by an annual rate of 6.2 percent during July after going up 7.2 percent during June. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3.5 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the United State's overall economic activity.

Hotel Industry Leading Indicator growth slows 02 September 2010 e-forecasting Press Release

 

Five of the nine components that make up Hotel Industry Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in July: labor market tightness, weekly hours in hotels, hotel profitability, interest rate spread and new orders for manufactured goods. Four of the nine components had a negative or zero contribution to Hotel Industry's Leading Indicator in July: international visitors’ future demand, oil prices, housing activity and national vacation barometer.        
           
“The fundamentals that measure the U.S. hotel industry had a strong positive contribution in July: labor market tightness, weekly hours in hotels and hotel profitability," said Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com."Even with this monthly increase, we are still seeing a deterioration in the six-month growth rate, which is now near its long-term trend. This means that growth in the U.S. hotel industry is headed back to its long-term average and may stop seeing some of the strong months we have had this summer."
The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading Indicator, or HIL, is a monthly leading indicator for the hotel industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. The indicator provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry.

 
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