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Americans appetite for vacations drives demand:

EDITOR'S NOTE

January 30th, 2012 
e-forecasting.com eNews for the Hotel Industry

DURHAM, New Hampshire ó Future business activity in U.S. hotels rose during December, according to the latest reading of e-forecasting.comís Hotel Industry Leading indicator.

The Hotel Industry Leading indicator, or HIL, is a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry. It climbed 1.7 % during December to 103.0, following a flat performance during November. The index was set to equal 100 in 2005.

HIL's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the forthcoming turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive gain of 5.7% during December, following positive growth of 2.9% in November. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.

The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 0.1 % in December, down from 4.1% reported in November. When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50% for a more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle.

"In our latest HIL report, we see American's appetite for vacations surging and becoming the strongest positive component in our hotel industry leading indicator," said Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com.

Seven of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator had a positive contribution to its change in December: Jobs Market; Hotel Worker Hours; Foreign Demand; Yield Curve; New Orders; Housing Activity and Vacation Barometer. Two indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in December: Hotel Profitability and Oil Prices.

The US hotel industry leading indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry

 
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