NEWS & MEDIA
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Americans appetite for vacations
drives demand:
EDITOR'S NOTE
| January 30th, 2012 |
| e-forecasting.com eNews for the Hotel Industry |
DURHAM, New Hampshire —
Future business activity in U.S. hotels rose during December,
according to the latest reading of e-forecasting.com’s Hotel
Industry Leading indicator.
The Hotel Industry Leading
indicator, or HIL, is a composite indicator that gauges future
monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry. It
climbed 1.7 % during December to 103.0, following a flat
performance during November. The index was set to equal 100 in
2005.
HIL's six-month growth rate, which has historically
confirmed the forthcoming turning points in U.S. hotel business
activity, posted a positive gain of 5.7% during December, following
positive growth of 2.9% in November. This compares to a long-term
annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual
growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.
The
probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the
near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of
sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 0.1 % in December,
down from 4.1% reported in November. When this recession-warning
gauge passes the threshold probability of 50% for a more than three
months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its
business cycle.
"In our latest HIL report, we see
American's appetite for vacations surging and becoming the
strongest positive component in our hotel industry leading
indicator," said Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com.
Seven of the forward looking indicators of business activity that
comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator had a positive
contribution to its change in December: Jobs Market; Hotel Worker
Hours; Foreign Demand; Yield Curve; New Orders; Housing Activity
and Vacation Barometer. Two indicators of future business activity
had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in December:
Hotel Profitability and Oil Prices.
The US hotel industry
leading indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator
for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the
real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a
composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on
average, when put together have led the industry four to five
months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business
cycle. HIL provides useful information about the future direction
of the U.S. hotel industry
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